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Morning Edition · Friday, July 3, 2026

Deadly strikes hit both sides of the Ukraine war as civilian toll mounts

Russian officials reported a Ukrainian drone attack on a market in Tokmak that killed five, a day after what Kyiv called the deadliest Russian assault of the year.

Deadly strikes hit both sides of the Ukraine war as civilian toll mounts

Russian-installed authorities in the Zaporizhzhia region said a Ukrainian drone struck a city market in Tokmak on Friday, killing five people, according to RIA Novosti and TASS. The region's Russian-installed head, Yevgeny Balitsky, said casualties were still being brought in. The reports could not be independently verified, and Ukraine did not immediately comment.

The strike followed a day of violence on the other side of the front. At least four people were killed in Ukraine, Al Jazeera reported, a day after what Kyiv described as the deadliest Russian attacks of the year, while two more died in Ukrainian strikes on Russian border regions. Russia's Defense Ministry separately claimed its forces had captured the settlement of Aleksandrovka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Each government presents the fighting in its own terms. Moscow emphasizes Ukrainian strikes on markets and border areas and heavy Ukrainian battlefield losses, while Kyiv points to Russian bombardment of its cities and power grid. Both sides have sustained a campaign of long-range strikes aimed at the other's infrastructure and logistics.

The pattern of reciprocal deep strikes has become the defining feature of the war's current phase, pressuring civilian life and energy systems on both sides even as front lines move only slowly.

Part of a tracked trend

Ukraine's Deep Strikes on Russian Energy and Logistics

Ukraine sustains a campaign against Russian refineries and supply lines over the next 3-6 months, pressuring Moscow's oil revenue while Russia retaliates against Ukraine's grid.

Veracity: Plausible
54/100
If true, who benefits

Moscow, which foregrounds Ukrainian strikes on markets and border areas to counter the account of Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

The nuance

The Tokmak market death toll comes solely from Russian-installed authorities and is unverified, while the reciprocal deep-strike pattern itself is well documented.

An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.

What this means

The war has settled into a prolonged exchange of strikes on infrastructure and rear areas rather than rapid changes in territory. For markets, the relevant risk is the campaign against Russian energy facilities, which can disrupt oil output and exports, and any spillover onto North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) territory that would force a Western response.

What to watch

  • Whether Ukrainian strikes increasingly target Russian refineries and export terminals, because damage there would tighten global fuel supply and lift prices.
  • Any incident that crosses into NATO airspace or territory, since that would raise the risk of direct Western involvement.

Observations to monitor, not financial advice.

3 sources

Synthesized from: RIA Novosti · TASS · Al Jazeera