The Polylog Global Intelligence Brief

Morning Edition · Thursday, August 13, 2026

Macro

US inflation held at 3.4% in July, cutting the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September

Traders lowered the implied probability of a September rate increase to about 42% from roughly 72%, and gold rose 1.2% while silver gained close to 3%.

2 sources

Tech

Anthropic investors are pricing the artificial-intelligence developer at up to $2 trillion ahead of a Nasdaq listing

The company was valued at $965 billion in a private round three months ago, and a raise above $60 billion would exceed Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion offering as the largest on record.

3 sources

Geopolitics

Putin visits the disputed Kuril Islands for the first time, and Japan lodges a formal protest

The Russian president toured a fish-processing plant on Iturup one day after reviewing Pacific Fleet exercises involving about 13,000 troops from the cruiser Varyag.

4 sources
Corroborated

Geopolitics

Japan tells Iran it will not accept transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz

Iranian lawmakers have reviewed a bill charging roughly $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel, and the strait has been effectively closed for more than five months.

2 sources
Corroborated

World

Oil from a sanctioned tanker carrying Russian crude has reached Oman's coastline

The vessel ran aground in a marine reserve on 30 June after a suspected explosion, and Omani authorities say up to 40 kilometres of coast may be affected.

2 sources
Corroborated

Markets

Bank of America agrees to take up to 49.9% of Jio Credit for 182.7 billion rupees

The joint venture values the two-year-old Indian lender's expansion at about $1.9 billion and follows similar moves by Japanese and Gulf banks into Indian financial firms.

3 sources

Geopolitics

The United States and Japan plan the world's deepest undersea mine to break China's hold on heavy rare earths

Recovery from about 6,000 metres near Minamitorishima would cost roughly three times Chinese land-based extraction, with full-scale test excavation planned for February 2027.

2 sources
Corroborated

Geopolitics

A drone strike set fire to the industrial zone at Salavat, one of Russia's largest petrochemical sites

Air defences also forced temporary flight restrictions at Ulyanovsk airport, which reopened within hours, while alerts were lifted in the Voronezh and Oryol regions.

4 sources
CorroboratedUpdated

Crypto

Dogecoin futures positioning has returned to October 2025 levels while the price sits 70% lower

More than three accounts hold long positions expecting a rebound for every one holding a short position, a ratio that leaves the trade crowded on one side.

2 sources

Geopolitics

Israeli settlers besieged three Palestinian families in Qusra, and the US ambassador said Washington asked Israel to remove them

Al Jazeera reported the families were cut off from water, power and supplies since Sunday, and Ambassador Mike Huckabee called the siege a horrific act of terror.

3 sources
CorroboratedUpdated

World

Colombia's earthquake death toll reaches 265 as search operations enter their final phase

President de La Espriella promised an emergency fund to rebuild destroyed hospitals and schools, while in Japan a retailer weighs compensation for seven employees killed in a post-quake explosion.

2 sources

World

The World Health Organization says Congo's Ebola outbreak is on track to surpass the deadliest on record

Tedros said the outbreak, which has now killed more than 2,000 people in under a month, is spreading at the fastest pace on record and could surpass the 2014-2016 West African epidemic that killed over 11,000.

1 source
CorroboratedUpdated