Yemeni government forces say they have retaken the Bab el-Mandeb coast as Gulf crude moves out of the region on routes that avoid Hormuz

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces advanced along the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday as far as the city of Mocha, the government said. Reuters reported, citing military sources, that the forces pushed the Houthis out of most of the areas the group took last month. Those areas include an airstrip in the Dhubab district at the mouth of the strait. The Houthis' capture of that district last month moved energy markets. The Saudi-led coalition says it flew 100 fighter jets in continuous support and destroyed 324 "high-value" Houthi targets, The National reported. Globes reported that the coalition also announced a "major military operation" by naval forces in the Red Sea province of Hodeidah. All of these figures come from one side of a war and have not been independently confirmed. Al Jazeera reported the gains as government claims.

The Red Sea now matters more to Gulf oil than it did before the war. Standard Chartered estimates that Gulf crude and condensate exports excluding Iran have recovered to near pre-war levels, while Hormuz traffic stays well below normal. Data compiled by investingLive put September exports at about 16.5 million barrels a day. Only about 60% of those barrels physically crossed Hormuz. About 23% left from the Gulf of Oman, mostly crude linked to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and loaded near Fujairah. About 17% left from the Red Sea, mainly Saudi crude shipped from Yanbu. Before the war, roughly 17% of exports avoided the strait. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia sold about 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship loading at Oman's Sohar port in September and October.

Prices show what these alternative routes cost. Brent traded above $102 on Monday, while Abu Dhabi's Murban grade reached $110, Gulf News reported. Not everyone expects the problem to fade. In an essay republished by ZeroHedge, former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson argues that the world faces a multi-year fuel crisis, which most commentators still treat as a temporary price spike.