Morning Edition · Monday, October 12, 2026
Markets
Oil falls to about $103 after Trump declares a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" that covers only refineries
Brent dropped 1.3% in early Asian trading, but Russia struck Ukrainian power plants in Kharkiv and Kyiv within hours of Trump's announcement, and continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept crude above $100, as neither Moscow nor Kyiv has formally confirmed the truce.
Geopolitics
Washington threatens to block arms for Ukraine unless Kyiv stops striking Russian refineries
Zelensky says Ukraine will stop only if Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy sites, and the Kremlin says he lacks the will to settle after Trump said Ukraine needs a new president.
Macro
Dollar holds near its highest level in a year and a half before US inflation data forecast to show a 3.6% annual rise
Wednesday's consumer price report is one of the last major data releases before the Federal Reserve meets on October 28, and higher oil prices have pushed up the forecast for headline inflation.
Geopolitics
Seven senators, four of them Republicans, say Trump's Russian diesel deal breaks a 2022 import ban
The Treasury has issued a sanctions license through April 7 so that Russia can sell diesel to world markets, starting with the 300,000 tons Trump says will flow immediately.
Macro
IMF opens its Bangkok meetings warning that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, warned that "winter is coming," as interest payments already take more than a tenth of revenue in the average developing country and the Iran war's energy shock leads the agenda.
Geopolitics
Houthi strike on Riyadh's airport kills a Pakistani resident a day after a deadlier attack halted flights
Pakistan, which joined a defense pact with Saudi Arabia in August, condemned the attacks, Saudi officials say the deadlier strike a day earlier killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, and India is weighing the risk to the 2.6 million of its citizens who work in the kingdom.
Crypto
Bitcoin holds above $84,000 as oil falls, despite more than $600 million of fund outflows last week
Gold rose about 0.2% to near $4,200 an ounce. Market reports tied bitcoin's gain to easing energy risk and gold's gain to continuing Middle East risk.
Markets
Oil freight costs have risen eight- to tenfold since the US-Iran war began, and a South Korean ship completes an Arctic round trip to Europe
Shipping costs for finished goods are up about 73%, and the PanStar Acro returned to Busan after 50 days on a route along Russia's Arctic coast that cuts the distance to Rotterdam by about a third.
World
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's runoff polls as household consumption heads for its weakest growth since the pandemic
Datafolha shows the senator ahead 52% to 48% before the October 25 vote, after the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to above 200,000 points following the first round.
Geopolitics
Ethiopian forces enter Adigrat, 30 kilometers from Eritrea, as the two governments trade accusations at the United Nations
Ethiopia told the Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometers into Tigray, and Eritrea asked the UN to intervene a week after the two neighbors cut diplomatic ties.
Geopolitics
North Korea fires several ballistic missiles after South Korea tests a hypersonic missile
South Korea's military says the missiles flew more than 900 kilometers, in Pyongyang's fourth launch this month.
Macro
Argentina's Caputo seeks about $1 billion from the IMF in Bangkok as Indonesia courts Vaca Muerta energy
The IMF wants Argentina's recovery to spread beyond farming, mining and energy, while app-based self-employment has grown by up to 30% in a year with unemployment at 7.9%.