Morning Edition · Thursday, October 15, 2026Published at 1:13 AM EDT · New York
The new options cover Iranian energy infrastructure and the underground site known as Pickaxe Mountain, but military sources quoted in the report doubt the weapon can reach deep bunkers.

The US military has drawn up new strike plans against Iran that include possible use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB), CNN reported. The plans would apply if President Trump orders combat operations to resume. One source told CNN that Trump ordered additional strike packages covering "a lot of energy infrastructure." Plans against nuclear sites, including the underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain, explicitly included the bomb.
Israeli coverage focused on what the plan suggests about US intentions. Ynet noted that the bomb is the largest non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal and has been used in combat only once. It said the wording of the report suggests Washington could use the weapon, declare that it had achieved its objectives, and then withdraw forces. Ynet also cited doubts about how effective the bomb would be. CNN quoted one assessment stating the MOAB is "definitely not designed as a deep penetration warhead." Globes ran the report alongside a separate item saying Israel is blocking the creation of a base for the international force that the US-led "Board of Peace" plans for Gaza.
Iran has shown no sign of changing its position. On Wednesday, Iranian officials said they were "counting the moments" until they could strike US warships. Iran has warned before that any attack on its nuclear facilities would widen the regional war. Satellite analysis cited by Euronews Persian in September showed reinforced tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain. Israel says Iran moved enriched uranium and centrifuges there after the June 2025 strikes. Iran has not confirmed this.
Part of a tracked trend
Fragile US-Iran Detente
The US-Iran settlement is a managed, reversible arrangement rather than a durable peace, so repeated rounds of brinkmanship and renegotiation will keep regional risk live and intermittently price back into energy markets.
Publishing the plans pressures Tehran during talks. It also helps those in Washington who prefer a short, highly visible strike they can declare a success. Holders of oil and defense stocks benefit from the higher risk premium attached to a possible attack on Iranian energy sites.
Al-Monitor and Iran International repeated CNN's report, but all of the reporting comes from anonymous sources describing contingency plans, not a decision. CNN's own sources say the bomb probably cannot reach the depth of Pickaxe Mountain, which suggests the leak may serve to send a message as much as to describe an operation. The claim that Iran moved enriched uranium to the site comes from Israel, and Tehran has not confirmed it.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
Synthesized from: Ynet (Hebrew) · Globes (Hebrew)
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What this means
The disclosure of these strike plans is itself a form of pressure. Reports about them raise pressure on Tehran during talks, and adding energy infrastructure to the target list puts Iran's export capacity, and therefore global oil supply, directly at risk. Iran's main source of leverage runs through the Strait of Hormuz, so each new threat to its oil sites makes attacks on tankers and mining more likely, as this week's sinking shows. Ynet's reading, that a large, visible strike could let Washington claim it achieved its objectives and withdraw, matches what happened after the June 2025 strikes: a short campaign followed by a fragile, renegotiated pause. Our forward read: if strikes resume, they are likely to be brief and highly visible, followed by a declared end within weeks. Iranian retaliation at sea would then keep a risk premium in Brent crude even after the strikes stop. The alternative is that these plans remain a negotiating threat. The deciding factor is whether Iran reduces its attacks on tankers before the midterms.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
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