Trump Says He Would Meet Putin and Xi to End the Ukraine War, Possibly Without Zelensky

What this means

Washington is negotiating the war's outcome directly with the two other major powers, while Ukraine and the European capitals are excluded from the talks. Including Xi gives Beijing a guarantor's role in a European settlement. That supports the desk's view that there are two superpowers and that Russia dominates its neighborhood when the US steps back. The leverage is practical. Starlink coverage and intelligence on incoming strikes are things only Washington can give or withhold, and senators' statements do not restore either one. The precedent is March 2025. After an Oval Office argument, the US paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine and restored it about a week later, once Kyiv accepted a ceasefire framework at talks in Jeddah. The desk's read is that Kyiv will make concessions on the format of negotiations in order to get its intelligence and communications restored before the Shenzhen meetings, while Congress issues statements but passes no binding legislation before the midterms. Ukrainian dollar bonds would gain on a ceasefire, but European defense budgets would not shrink, because European capitals would be preparing for a settlement they did not shape. Congress passing a measure that compels intelligence sharing, or Beijing refusing a three-way format, would prove this wrong.