Morning Edition · Saturday, November 7, 2026Published at 12:12 AM EST · New York
Speaking at the IMF in Washington, Ueda gave no guidance on a December rate increase, while consumer prices run near 3% and uninsured Japanese deposits reach about $890 billion.
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), said it is unclear how long inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target, and he acknowledged that the public has not yet come to treat the target as normal, The Japan Times reported. He spoke at the 2026 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington on November 6. "Whether we could stay in that equilibrium for a very long time to come, we still don't know," Ueda said, according to Reuters, adding that he sees "some upside risks" to prices.
Headline inflation is running above the target. Ueda said consumer prices are now around 3% and are expected to rise further into early next year as higher energy costs reach consumers, according to one summary of his remarks. He gave no specific guidance on further rate increases in his exchange with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The BOJ's next policy meeting ends on December 18.
Japanese savers carry the cost of the gap between prices and deposit rates. Deposits above the insurance cap of 10 million yen per depositor per bank have reached about $890 billion, swollen by inheritances, Nikkei Asia reported. Equity holdings fell sharply this week, when the Nikkei 225 entered a bear market on Friday. Reuters separately reported that the government plans to use proceeds from BOJ asset sales as the AI-driven sell-off adds to fiscal concerns.
What this means
The central bank says the inflation target has been reached, but it is reluctant to raise rates while headline prices run near 3% and the stock market is falling. Its caution keeps deposit rates below inflation, so the real value of household savings keeps shrinking, including the $890 billion sitting above the insurance cap. That is a transfer from savers to a heavily indebted state. The exposed assets are the yen, long-dated Japanese government bonds and the domestic deposit base, which has more reason to move abroad or into real assets. The precedent is August 2024, when the BOJ's July rate increase was followed by an unwinding of yen-funded trades and a 12.4% one-day fall in the Nikkei, after which the deputy governor said the bank would not raise rates while markets were unstable. The honest read on December 18 has two outcomes. The BOJ raises rates if the yen weakens sharply after a Federal Reserve increase on December 9. It holds if the equity sell-off continues into mid-December. The yen's move in the week after the Fed meeting will decide between them.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Bank of Japan · The Japan Times · Nikkei Asia
Start a discussion in Townsquare.
More from this edition
Comments
0No comments yet.