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Morning Edition · Monday, November 9, 2026Published at 12:08 AM EST · New York
Brent falls below $100 after Trump calls new Iran strikes unlikely, while Rubio says Tehran's demands are unrealistic
Trump said a deal would already have been signed if not for the midterm elections, and Iraq says it is pumping more than 5 million barrels a day, half a million above its requirement under the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
Crude fell below $100 a barrel again on Monday after President Trump told CNN that new attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progressed. Brent traded between about $97.67 and $98.20, HDFC Sky reported. That was down from a $104.77 settlement on November 2 and from near $118 the Friday before. Trump added a condition: "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement."
Trump told Russian state agency TASS's English service, in remarks the agency relayed, that Washington and Tehran would have signed a deal had it not been for the midterms. He said he remains confident an agreement will come. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sounded harder. He called the war unpopular but "necessary" to stop a nuclear threat and described Iran's negotiating demands as "outrageous and ridiculous, and really not realistic."
Tehran presents the talks differently. Iranian outlets report that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said negotiations continue through intermediaries including Pakistan and Qatar, and that it is the American side that closes the road. Israel's Ynet reported that commentators in Iran read Trump's midterm defeat as American public opposition to renewed fighting, while remembering that they face "bruised and angry" leaders.
Supply discipline is weakening at the same time. Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said his country already produces more than 5 million barrels a day, more than half a million above its OPEC+ requirement. The statement complicates Baghdad's own bid for a larger quota.
Part of a tracked trend
Fragile US-Iran Detente
The US-Iran settlement is a managed, reversible arrangement rather than a durable peace, so repeated rounds of brinkmanship and renegotiation will keep regional risk live and intermittently price back into energy markets.
Veracity: Corroborated
76/100- If true, who benefits
Importers such as India and Japan gain from a smaller oil risk premium, and so does a White House that wants lower pump prices before a Democratic Congress takes office, while Gulf and Russian producers lose revenue.
- The nuance
Trump's "highly unlikely" remark is on the record with CNN and conditional on a signed deal, and Rubio's "outrageous and ridiculous" quote is confirmed. But Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also said mediators have not travelled since the midterms and that Washington must accept Iran's proposal or face war, which is a harder line than the article's picture of an open channel.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
Synthesized from: Economic Times · Al Jazeera · TASS · OilPrice
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Comments
1Nov 9, 5:08 AM · edited
Brent near $98 is about 17% below the near $118 level of late October, so Trump's conditional wording leaves room for a sharp rebound if a strong agreement is not signed.