The Polylog Global Intelligence Brief

Morning Edition · Friday, November 13, 2026

Macro

Rate-Hike Bets Lift the Dollar to a 19-Month High and Push Gold to a 13-Month Low

The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5% after a hot October inflation report, and markets now treat a December Fed hike as the base case, with some traders weighing a half-point move.

3 sources

Tech

Jensen Huang Resigns as Nvidia Chief Executive, and Washington Turns Its Scrutiny to the Company's China Exports

Nvidia shares fell more than 13% early Thursday and closed about 5% lower. The Senate Banking Committee has summoned both Jensen Huang and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to testify on December 3, even as President Trump publicly backed Lutnick while his own aides reportedly debate removing him.

4 sources
CorroboratedUpdated

Geopolitics

Iran Says It Struck a US Radar Site in Bahrain and Warns That Bases in Europe Could Be Targets

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps called the strike retaliation for an attack on a telecommunications tower in Hormozgan province, as Tehran warned that any base used to launch new attacks, including in Europe, would be a target.

4 sources
Plausible

Markets

Oil Heads for a Second Weekly Loss as Trump Says No Iran Deal Is Needed and US Crude Stocks Rise

Brent traded near $95.41 early Friday and was down about 2.4% for the week despite a 3.3% jump on Thursday, which followed reports of attacks on Saudi Arabia.

4 sources
Plausible

Macro

Yen Weakens Past 160 per Dollar, and Japan's Finance Minister Warns of Action

The yen fell as low as 160.03, its weakest level since early September. Tokyo spent 15.4 trillion yen defending the currency this summer in an intervention the US Treasury joined.

2 sources

Geopolitics

US Envoys Say Europe Will Join the Next Round of Ukraine Talks After Meeting Putin in the Kremlin

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner went from Moscow to Dublin to brief Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia has not formally confirmed that Europe will take part, and Vladimir Putin repeated his opposition to European troops.

4 sources
Plausible

Crypto

Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 and More Than $1.3 Billion in Crypto Futures Positions Are Liquidated

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since August as the dollar rose. Gold recovered part of its losses on Friday, but bitcoin did not.

2 sources

Geopolitics

Ukrainian Drones Set the Volgograd Refinery on Fire and Disrupt Moscow's Airports During Peace Talks

The Lukoil plant in Volgograd processes about 15 million tons of crude a year. Russian officials reported more than 100 drones downed near Moscow, more than 120 over the Rostov region, and damaged homes in Rostov-on-Don.

4 sources
Corroborated

Geopolitics

Xi Will Chair the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen as Beijing Confirms Talks on a Possible Trump-Xi-Putin Meeting

China's foreign ministry said President Xi Jinping will give the keynote speech at next week's summit, where President Trump is expected but not yet confirmed, and where he would arrive after his party lost the midterm elections.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Brazil's Senate Passes the Core of a Fiscal Package by 45 to 31 as Losses on Bank Loans Rise

The bill aims to save 50 billion to 60 billion reais in 2027. The four largest listed banks booked loan-loss provisions of 49.9 billion reais in the third quarter, a record and more than double their combined profit.

4 sources

Macro

India's Retail Inflation Rises to 6.09% in October and Breaches the Reserve Bank's Upper Limit

Inflation rose from 5.54% in September, above the 6% economists expected and the Reserve Bank's 6% ceiling, while falling crude prices have revived trading in Indian equities.

2 sources

Macro

Argentina's Monthly Inflation Reaches 2.2% in October, and Private Salaried Jobs Fall for a 15th Month

The October figure exceeded forecasts and leaves inflation running at close to 30% a year. Official employment data show workers moving from salaried jobs into self-employment, while President Javier Milei promises more economic opening and hints that he will seek re-election.

3 sources