Colombia Votes in a Tight Race That Will Test Investor Sentiment

Colombians voted Sunday in a presidential election that produced a surprise. Deutsche Welle had described a close three-way race among a veteran leftist, a right-wing senator and an independent businessman, but the count defied pre-election polling that had favored the left. Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella finished first with 43.7 percent of the vote, ahead of leftist Iván Cepeda's 40.9 percent. Neither reached the absolute majority required to win outright, so the two advance to a runoff.

The runner-up, Senator Iván Cepeda of the ruling Pacto Histórico, would continue the policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. The first-place finisher, Abelardo de la Espriella, is a lawyer who has modeled his style on Trump and holds a pro-Israel position, as the Israeli outlet Globes noted. His lead reversed the pre-election surveys that had placed Cepeda ahead, while the center-right candidate Paloma Valencia finished third with 6.9 percent. More than 23 million Colombians cast ballots, a turnout of roughly 56 percent.

The vote takes place during an acute security crisis, and the contest sets continuity of a left-wing economic agenda against a sharp shift toward market-friendly, security-focused policy. The outcome will shape the direction of Colombia's state oil company, fiscal policy and foreign alignment.

The runoff is scheduled for June 21, with the winner taking office on August 7. That timeline leaves several weeks of uncertainty for Colombian assets and for the peso.