Oil Holds Near Pre-War Lows as Middle East Supply Fears Ease

Crude oil is trading near its lowest levels since the Middle East war began, with Brent trading around 70 dollars a barrel and United States crude falling below that level, according to Al Jazeera and Trading Economics. Prices are down more than 38 percent from a post-war peak above 126 dollars reached on April 30, a decline driven by progress toward a durable US-Iran settlement and by the reopening of shipping.

The factors pushing prices lower are concrete. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have returned to roughly 90 percent of their pre-war baseline as more tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz, and a sizable volume of Iranian oil has been accumulating at sea, ready to return to the market. Israeli commentary reviewed by Globes noted that some traders had positioned around the Hormuz disruption, a position that has been reversed as the waterway returns to normal.

The de-escalation is easing a major source of global energy inflation, but it rests on a truce that officials on both sides describe as conditional. The same barrels that are pressuring prices lower would reverse quickly if the settlement broke down, which is why the market treats the current calm as provisional rather than settled.