Nvidia Reports $96.2 Billion in Quarterly Revenue and Guides Above $105 Billion, Excluding China Entirely

Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.22 billion, up 106 percent from a year earlier and above the roughly $92.2 billion analysts expected, CNBC reported. The company guided to between $105.84 billion and $110.16 billion in revenue for the current quarter. Chief executive Jensen Huang told investors he expects revenue growth near 70 percent in fiscal 2028. Shares rose 4.71 percent in extended trading, and Dow futures gained about 180 points. Amazon Web Services agreed to buy two million of the company's graphics processors.

Two details matter more than the headline number. The guidance assumes no data centre revenue from China at all, which means the company is now modelling the export-control regime as permanent rather than temporary. Within the data centre segment, the largest cloud operators accounted for $37.9 billion of sales against $37.4 billion from everyone else, so roughly half the revenue depends on the capital expenditure decisions of a handful of buyers.

The picture from the other side of the export-control line is different. The South China Morning Post reports that assets under management at Chinese mutual funds shrank by 560 billion yuan, about $83.3 billion, last month, while assets in private funds grew, as investors rotated out of a falling domestic semiconductor sector. The same technology theme is producing strong earnings in one jurisdiction and fund redemptions in another.

The Financial Times raises a separate question about how the boom is being assessed, reporting that economists are increasingly employed by or collaborating with the technology companies whose spending they analyse. When the buyers, the sellers and much of the independent analysis of returns all belong to the same commercial network, the market has fewer outside checks on whether the capital being committed will earn its cost.