Morning Edition · Saturday, August 29, 2026Published at 1:10 AM EDT · New York
Support reached 65 percent after Washington curtailed joint military exercises, and 58 percent of those who see no risk of war still favored an arsenal.
A Gallup Korea poll released Friday found that 65 percent of South Koreans support their country developing its own nuclear weapons and 30 percent oppose the idea, The Japan Times reported. The survey questioned 1,001 people between August 25 and 27 and carried a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, according to The Korea Times.
Support crossed party lines. It reached 78 percent among supporters of the People Power Party and 60 percent among supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea. The clearest indication came from respondents who said they saw no risk of North Korea starting a war: 58 percent of that group still supported a South Korean arsenal. Gallup read this as evidence that many respondents view nuclear weapons as a permanent deterrent and a marker of national status, not simply a response to an immediate threat.
The poll follows President Donald Trump's decision to unilaterally reduce joint military exercises with Seoul, Bloomberg reported. Russian state agency TASS also carried the finding, framing it as evidence of eroding confidence in American guarantees. South Korea is a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and building an arsenal would require withdrawing from it.
Part of a tracked trend
Middle Powers Build Security Blocs Outside Washington
States that once relied on American guarantees keep forming their own mutual defense arrangements, redirecting arms procurement away from Western suppliers and creating overlapping commitments that make regional crises harder to contain.
South Korean advocates of an independent arsenal gain a mandate figure to cite, Russian and other outlets critical of American alliances gain evidence of eroding confidence in Washington, and defence and civil nuclear firms in Seoul gain a more permissive political climate.
The headline numbers hold up in The Korea Times and Korea JoongAng Daily, but Gallup Korea's own reading was that respondents treat the weapons as deterrence rather than for use, the link to Trump's reduction of joint exercises is inferred from timing rather than tested by the survey, and polled support has repeatedly failed to translate into any party policy that would require leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
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What this means
Synthesized from: The Japan Times · The Korea Times · TASS
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Public opinion is not policy, but sustained majorities of this size change what a South Korean government can propose without political cost, and they arrive when the United States is reducing its visible commitments in Asia. If Seoul moves toward independent deterrence, the immediate market consequences run through South Korean sovereign risk, the won, and the country's civil nuclear and defence industries, and the wider consequence is pressure on Japan to reconsider its own position. Non-proliferation has held in Northeast Asia because American guarantees were credible enough to make it unnecessary.
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