Houthi Control of Bab al-Mandeb Leaves Washington With No Cheap Options

The Houthi advance along Yemen's Red Sea coast has produced a problem Washington has not solved in three years of air operations. The Japan Times reported that the group may soon be able to control passage through Bab al-Mandeb outright, which would give Tehran leverage over both of the corridors that carry Gulf crude to Europe and Asia. Air strikes have not dislodged the group from territory it holds, and no regional government has offered the ground forces that would be required.

The human movement is already visible. Al Jazeera reported that roughly 1,400 Yemenis reached Obock in Djibouti within 24 hours as the Houthis tightened control of the strait. Djibouti hosts American, French, Japanese and Chinese military facilities and depends on transit trade with Ethiopia, so a large refugee arrival adds pressure to one of the few stable logistics hubs on that coast.

Yemen's internationally recognised government says its forces are counter-attacking along the coast. The Houthis say they are securing the strait. Neither claim has been independently verified, and both sides have an interest in overstating their control.

For shipping companies the political question is already settled in practice. More than 70 percent of east-west container traffic now routes around the Cape of Good Hope, adding ten to fourteen days to Asia-Europe voyages, and Asia-Europe freight rates remain roughly a quarter to 40 percent above pre-crisis levels.