Morning Edition · Thursday, September 24, 2026Published at 1:14 AM EDT · New York
Diesel prices and refining margins have carried the sector while the rest of the market contends with rising borrowing costs.

Brent crude rose 2.37 percent on Wednesday to settle at 101.61 dollars a barrel, holding above the 100-dollar mark that the Financial Times identified as one driver of the global bond sell-off. Brent is up roughly 10 percent over the past month and about 47 percent against the same point last year.
The gain has transferred income to European energy producers. Euronews reported that high diesel prices and refining margins have lifted the region's oil majors by between 40 percent and 87 percent this year, making the sector the standout performer in an equity market otherwise held back by rising rates. Refining, not production, is doing much of the work, because European refinery capacity has shrunk while demand for middle distillates has not.
Two supply developments are pulling in the other direction. Saudi Arabia is preparing to restart exports through its east-west pipeline, which would let the kingdom move barrels without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and United States President Donald Trump described recent talks with Iranian envoys as productive, with further rounds planned. Globes reported in its Thursday morning markets note that crude retreated after Wednesday's gains on reports of higher imports.
The structure of the move matters more than the daily level. A price held up by damaged and rerouted supply, rather than by demand, raises costs for every fuel consumer while rewarding whoever owns refining capacity outside the disrupted region. That is a transfer of real income from importers to producers and refiners, and it arrives in the same quarter that central banks are trying to bring measured inflation down.
Part of a tracked trend
Middle East War Premium Returns to Oil
Renewed US-Iran conflict reinstates a geopolitical risk premium in crude that reverses the earlier de-escalation slide, feeding energy-driven inflation and redistributing income toward oil producers each time brinkmanship flares.
What this means
Crude above 100 dollars feeds directly into the input-cost components of business surveys and into headline inflation for energy importers, which strengthens the case for tighter policy and therefore for higher bond yields. European refiners and integrated oil companies gain through margins. Transport-heavy sectors, airlines, trucking and chemicals, lose through fuel bills they cannot fully pass on. Countries that import both crude and refined diesel face the cost twice.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Euronews · Financial Times · Globes (Hebrew)
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1Sep 24, 5:14 AM · edited
European oil equity gains of up to 87 percent rest on refining margins rather than crude price exposure, so a crack spread compression while Brent stays above 100 dollars would hit the sector's leaders hardest.