Morning Edition · Sunday, September 27, 2026UpdatedPublished at 5:15 PM EDT · New York
The Revolutionary Guard calls the strait a "hunting ground" for American equipment and the US military denies losing anything, days after President Trump publicly rejected Tehran's seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.
Updated at 5:15 PM EDT
Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced on September 27 that it had captured a second US-made underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military denied the claim, shifting the story from the stalled reopening talks to a direct military confrontation in the waterway.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on Sunday that its navy had captured a second American-made unmanned underwater vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States military denied the claim within hours. The IRGC identified the vehicle as a Remus 600 and said it was intercepted during a "coordinated intelligence and electronic warfare operation" and handed to Iranian specialists to extract its data. Euronews reported both the Iranian announcement and the American denial, quoting Captain Tim Hawkins of US Central Command, who said the United States has "positive control of all of our operational drone assets."
An IRGC spokesperson, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, said the waterway "is not only open, but a hunting ground for the IRGC Navy targeting American submarines," according to reporting on his remarks. The announcement follows an earlier Iranian claim, made days before, to have taken a Dive-LD autonomous underwater vehicle built by the American defence company Anduril near the entrance to the strait. In that case the US position was different. DefenseScoop reported that the vehicle was an older Dive-LD model that was defective and malfunctioning before the Iranian announcement, carried no classified sonar or radar equipment, and collected no sensitive data. Anduril said the Dive-LD is designed for environments where losing the vehicle is an expected outcome. In a separate statement, the IRGC said its forces had struck two American vessels, eight oil tankers and ten ships it described as violating a restricted zone in the strait, and that the waterway remains under the control of its navy, as reported by Iran's state news agency IRNA.
The escalation at sea comes after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait, telling reporters outside the White House on Saturday that Tehran wants an agreement because "they're losing so badly," while adding that he likes making deals. The Hindu reported his remarks after the Iranian plan was described to American officials during the United Nations General Assembly. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing US officials, that Trump has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterm elections in November, even as he continues to say publicly that Tehran will eventually accept a deal.
The plan itself came from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who set it out on September 24 at a private gathering on the sidelines of the General Assembly. Under the offer, Iran would reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks seven days after an agreement, provided Washington lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire extending to Lebanon. Araghchi argued that a quick settlement would help Trump before November's midterm elections. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, framed the decision as Washington's to make, saying his government does not wish to continue the war and that it is for the United States to decide whether it ends.
Tehran is still drawing a distinction between Trump's public remarks and Washington's formal position. Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran has not yet received an official answer through the mediators handling the talks, stating, "We saw the first reaction from the US president, but nothing has been conveyed to us from the mediators yet. We are waiting for the definitive opinions to be conveyed to us by the mediators and we will make a decision based on that." The proposal therefore remains formally open. Al Jazeera's review of the General Assembly described mixed outcomes and no agreed path to end the US-Iran war. Iran's Persian Gulf waterway management authority has separately warned shipowners that some charterers are pushing vessels onto routes Tehran does not recognise as valid, putting crews and vessels at direct risk in the dispute over who controls transit.
Brent crude traded around $106 a barrel on Friday as traders waited on the talks. That price level feeds directly into monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16 to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its first increase since 2023, citing inflation driven in part by oil. Goldman Sachs analysts have estimated that another month of closure keeps Brent above $100 through 2026.
Part of a tracked trend
Middle East War Premium Returns to Oil
Renewed US-Iran conflict reinstates a geopolitical risk premium in crude that reverses the earlier de-escalation slide, feeding energy-driven inflation and redistributing income toward oil producers each time brinkmanship flares.
Washington gains leverage by keeping Iranian barrels sanctioned while Tehran gains from every week crude stays above $100, and the durable winners are non-Gulf producers, tanker owners collecting war-risk freight rates, and holders of energy equities.
The rejection is corroborated across American, Qatari-owned and Iranian outlets, but Araghchi says Tehran is still waiting on a formal reply through mediators, so Trump's public remark is not yet the same as a closed channel, and the offer's own terms (a June memorandum framework, four to five days of preparatory steps) went unmet on both sides.
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What this means
The mechanism is straightforward: a closed strait removes Gulf barrels and Gulf liquefied natural gas from the seaborne market, which raises freight and insurance costs and feeds directly into headline inflation in every net importing economy. The exposed parties are oil-importing emerging markets, European and Asian refiners, and central banks that must now tighten into an energy shock rather than a demand boom. Washington's calculation is that sanctions and the blockade hurt Iran more than high crude hurts American voters before November, and Tehran's calculation is that time and the oil price are its remaining leverage. Both positions are already reflected in the price to some degree, since crude has held near or above $100 since early September. What is new is the explicit rejection of a sequenced, short-horizon offer, which removes the fastest available path to lower prices. The likelier outcome is that crude stays in a triple-digit range into the fourth quarter and the Federal Reserve delivers the additional rate increase its projections point to. That would change if mediators revive the exchange of a blockade lift for a reopening, which would bring a rapid decline in the risk premium within weeks. Renewed American strikes, which Trump has been reported to be weighing after the midterms, would prove the disinflation case wrong.
Synthesized from: The Hindu · The Hindu (proposal detail) · Al Jazeera · IRNA
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Comments
1Sep 27, 5:23 AM · edited
Because the offer restores transit only seven days after signing, a deal would reprice Brent and war risk insurance well before any cargo physically clears the strait.