Iran's Security Chief Admits the Economy Is in Its Hardest Period as the Blockade Cuts Oil Revenue

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has made what The New York Times called a rare admission of a dire economic crisis. The admission came weeks after Washington tightened both sanctions and the naval blockade. Rezaei said the economy is going through the most difficult period in its history because of the war, which began on February 28. The rial weakened to 2.567 million per dollar on September 30. Analysts quoted in the same report said the blockade has nearly cut off crude exports, Iran's main source of revenue, and caused fuel shortages at home.

Rezaei's statements are not fully consistent. In late August, he said Iran had broken the blockade during the ceasefire and exported 70 million to 80 million barrels. He also threatened that Iran would target US economic interests "100 percent" if the blockade continued. An official who first claims success against the blockade and then admits crisis is setting expectations at home for either a deal or harder measures.

The diplomatic message from Tehran is consistent. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that there is no military solution to what Iran calls the US war against it, and that only negotiations based on justice and fairness can end it. The reformist Iranian outlet Jamaran carried his position that neither force nor more sanctions will settle the dispute. Dawn reported that talks between Washington and Tehran appeared stalled.

There is also unconfirmed evidence about the naval war. ZeroHedge, citing the defense site The Aviationist, reported that a US Navy F/A-18F Super Hornet returned from Operation Epic Fury with a "Sub Buster" marking. The marking suggests a carrier aircraft may have sunk an Iranian submarine. The Pentagon has not confirmed such a kill, and Tehran has not acknowledged a loss.