Morning Edition · Wednesday, October 21, 2026Published at 1:06 AM EDT · New York
Chinese shipments of dysprosium and terbium to Japan have largely stopped since December, and President Donald Trump says the United States will take nearly half of the world chip market.

The United States and Japan began their biennial Keen Sword exercise on Monday, one of the largest joint drills between the two countries. This year it focuses on islands near Taiwan, Antiwar.com reported, as republished by ZeroHedge.
Beijing has already shown what it can withhold. After Japan indicated it would not stay neutral in a conflict over Taiwan, China sharply restricted exports of several heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, OilPrice reported. The outlet called Taiwan the next point where China will test the use of rare earths as leverage. Since December, Chinese exports of dysprosium, terbium and yttrium oxide to Japan have stopped apart from a few small shipments of yttrium, StratNews Global reported. Japanese magnet maker Shin-Etsu has stopped accepting new orders for dysprosium magnets, a customer said. In 2024 China exported about 14 tons a month of dysprosium and terbium to Japan. Lynas Rare Earths, the Australian producer Japan helped finance, made 8 tons of the two metals in the first quarter of 2026.
Washington is also pressing on chips. Trump said the United States will take nearly half of the world semiconductor market, Russian business outlet BFM reported. BFM noted that Washington had earlier proposed moving half of Taiwan's chip production to the United States. Japan meanwhile continues to profit from the AI build-out: shipments of semiconductors and chipmaking equipment rose sharply and supported solid export growth in September, The Japan Times reported.
Part of a tracked trend
Indo-Pacific Arms Race Accelerates
Over the next 3-6 months a sharpening regional arms race drives Japan and its neighbors to expand militaries and export weapons—Tokyo moving to sell missiles—as maritime confrontations with China multiply and Asian rearmament gathers pace.
Beijing shows it can impose costs on Japan without a formal ban, and Lynas and other non-Chinese rare earth producers stand to gain Japanese subsidies and long-term purchase contracts.
Chinese customs data show that <a href="https://www.marketscreener.com/news/china-squeezes-japan-over-rare-earths-in-repeat-of-2010-showdown-ce7f5adfdd8cf622">heavy rare earth exports to Japan have stopped</a>, but Beijing has not announced a Japan-specific ban. Beijing presents the dispute as a response to Tokyo's statements on Taiwan, and Tokyo sees economic coercion. The <a href="https://www.kettner-edelmetalle.de/news/raketen-vor-taiwan-japan-und-usa-ziehen-eine-mauer-gegen-peking-08-10-2026">first deployment of anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni during Keen Sword</a> gives Beijing new grounds to call the drills provocative. Trump's claim about chip market share is a projection, not a measured result.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
The two superpowers are each using a chokepoint they control. China holds heavy rare earth processing, and the United States is using tariffs and investment pressure to move chip manufacturing into the United States. Japan is exposed to both. Its export strength depends on chipmaking equipment sold into the AI build-out, while its magnet, electric-vehicle motor and defense supply chains depend on heavy rare earths that China has cut off. Lynas produces about a fifth of what China used to ship to Japan, so stockpiles must cover the gap for years. The precedent is China's 2010 restriction on rare earth shipments to Japan during the Senkaku dispute. That episode pushed Tokyo to fund alternative supply, but it did not end Japan's dependence. The desk's read is that Japanese manufacturers face rationing of dysprosium magnets within months, and that Tokyo increases subsidies for non-Chinese supply and recycling. The read would prove wrong if Beijing resumes export licenses to Japanese buyers. That would signal a political opening between Beijing and Tokyo.
Synthesized from: ZeroHedge (via Antiwar.com) · OilPrice · BFM.ru · The Japan Times (Business)
Start a discussion in Townsquare.
More from this edition
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Comments
0No comments yet.