Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs press Iran on Hormuz after a record month of tanker attacks

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey sent their security chiefs to Tehran to press for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the highest monthly number of attacks on shipping in the waterway that the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has recorded. The institute counted 28 confirmed and reported attacks in and around the strait in October, and 113 since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. On Monday, October 26, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center issued a verified but delayed report that a projectile had struck and disabled an outbound tanker in the strait on October 23. UKMTO said the crew was safe.

The scale of the attacks is disputed. On Thursday, October 22, Iranian state television cited the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and said seven tankers had been damaged overnight. According to the IRGC, four tankers caught fire after an attack while they transferred oil, and three hit naval mines. The Associated Press said seven would possibly be the largest number of ships damaged in a single day since the war began, but it could not confirm the claim. UKMTO logged only two attacks in that period, on the Kuwait-flagged Al Dasma and the Liberia-flagged Soyia. President Donald Trump rejected the Iranian reports and accused Tehran of inventing incidents to raise oil prices before the US midterm elections in November. He said more oil now moves through the strait than before the conflict. Iran warned that US bases in the region could be targeted if American forces continue to help commercial ships pass through the strait.

In Tehran, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin held talks with President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior Iranian security officials. Dawn reports that the three states, which signed a mutual defense arrangement known as the Makkah pact, brought an agenda that included halting Houthi attacks and reopening the strait. Pezeshkian backed an understanding "to strengthen unity among Muslim nations." Riyadh said the visit aimed to support existing Qatari and Pakistani mediation. The meeting followed an increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and renewed warnings of military action between Tehran and Washington. According to Geo News, the parties agreed to continue the dialogue. Munir had proposed the format during a visit to Tehran the previous week.

Iranian state media presented the visit as a test of the Gulf states' intentions. A former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon and Kuwait told IRNA that the trilateral trip was important but that any durable regional security structure "first requires genuine and mutual good faith" from the parties. BBC News Hindi asks why Tehran accepts Pakistani mediation at all. Pakistan has been a close partner of both Washington and Riyadh since its founding, yet Iran has accepted Islamabad as an intermediary and has voiced no public distrust. Pakistan shares a long border with Iran and needs calm on it, and it also has security obligations to Saudi Arabia. Both of its relationships depend on a settlement.

Oil traders gave more weight to the talks than to the attack record. Brent topped $113 on October 22 after the seven-tanker reports. Crude had fallen from a six-month high earlier this week, and the Tehran meeting led traders to reduce the risk premium further. Crude extended its losses, and Brent traded near $114.70 to $114.88 a barrel, down about 0.8% on the day. West Texas Intermediate slipped toward $100.80. Prices now rest on the hope that the talks will reduce attacks, while UKMTO continues to report tankers struck in the strait.