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Morning Edition · Tuesday, November 10, 2026Published at 12:10 AM EST · New York
Argentina's Country-Risk Spread Rises Above 900 Points as Caputo Seeks More Dollars Before 2027 Elections
The government needs about $1.3 billion for the International Monetary Fund by December and about $4.4 billion for bondholders in January, and the Republican midterm defeat weakens the US support behind its program.
Argentina's government is trying to build a larger reserve of foreign currency so it can reach the 2027 elections with the peso under control, the Buenos Aires daily Clarín reported in Spanish. The paper wrote that Trump's electoral defeat increases pressure on Economy Minister Luis Caputo's financing program, which has depended on political support from Washington. Clarín asked whether the government's "bazooka of dollars" is enough and described the alternatives investors are weighing as a backup plan.
Bond prices have fallen. Argentina's country-risk spread rose to 925 basis points, its highest since October 2025, La Política Online reported. Local traders treat a spread above 1,000 points as default territory. Caputo blamed politics rather than economic policy. "What some are afraid of is that President Milei is not there," he said, according to Canal 26.
The payment schedule is the problem. Argentina owes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) about $1.3 billion in November and December and bondholders about $4.4 billion in January. The central bank has bought $15.96 billion this year, and Caputo projects about $19.5 billion by year-end, but analysts doubt how many of those reserves are truly the central bank's own. The government is trying to prevent the rise in the spread from reaching the exchange rate and economic activity, Infobae reported.
Part of a tracked trend
Emerging-Market Elections Turn on Fiscal Credibility
In large emerging markets, polarised elections keep making fiscal rules and congressional arithmetic, rather than the identity of the winner, the main determinant of currency and local-rate pricing.
What this means
Argentina's program depends on borrowed reserves and on political credit from Washington, and the US midterms reduced the second. A Democratic Congress is more likely to examine the Treasury's support for Buenos Aires, so investors now price Argentine debt on the country's own dollar earnings. From an Austrian economics view, reserves acquired by issuing peso debt are not savings. They postpone a shortfall until the next large payment is due, and the next large payment is due in January. Holders of hard-currency Argentine bonds and local banks with large holdings of government paper are the most exposed. The 2018 crisis under President Mauricio Macri is the precedent: the spread rose quickly, the peso lost about half its value, and the IMF provided a record loan. The likelier outcome is that Argentina makes the January payment with reserves and short-term repurchase financing from banks, while the spread stays near 900 points into 2027. That forecast would be wrong if the government secures new US or multilateral financing before January, or if the spread rises above 1,000 points and the peso weakens sharply.
What to watch
- Whether the spread stays above 1,000 basis points for several days. That would end market access for new issuance before the January payment.
- Any announcement of a bank repurchase facility or new multilateral loan. It would show where the dollars for January will come from.
- The gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. A wider gap would show savers moving from pesos into dollars.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Clarín · La Política Online · Infobae
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