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Morning Edition · Tuesday, November 10, 2026Published at 12:10 AM EST · New York
Russia, Ukraine and the United States Resume Talks in Abu Dhabi With No Ceasefire on the Agenda
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said security guarantees for Ukraine must also be acceptable to Moscow, and Washington and Beijing still disagree on the format of a possible Trump-Putin-Xi meeting in Shenzhen next week.
Talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, with Washington mediating, resume in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. The New York Times reported that a ceasefire will not be on the agenda. Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy for the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, a senior adviser to Trump, lead the American delegation. Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, heads the Russian delegation, and Rustem Umerov leads Ukraine's, France 24 reported. Russia is demanding the parts of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still controls, and Ukraine has refused to give up territory.
Russian state media outlets are setting low expectations for the talks. The tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda asked whether this round would be "another conversation without a result or a turning point in the war." RT said the parties had listed European security and prisoner exchanges among their priorities. Washington's position has moved toward Moscow's on one point. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that any security guarantees for Ukraine must also be acceptable to Russia, the Kyiv Independent reported. At the same time, the Pentagon told Kyiv it will soon receive $400 million in weapons under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), Ukrinform reported.
European governments are seeking a role in the process. Officials from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet the Ukrainian delegation separately in Abu Dhabi, while the Kremlin insists the main format stays trilateral, Euronews reported. Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar called on the EU to appoint a special representative to the negotiations to defend member states' interests, BFM.ru reported.
The larger bargain may be struck elsewhere. Citing The Wall Street Journal, Kommersant reported that Washington and Beijing have not agreed on the format of a possible meeting between Trump, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. Fighting continued during the talks: explosions were reported overnight near an aircraft repair plant in Russia's Novgorod region, as drones targeted occupied Crimea, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Part of a tracked trend
Great Powers Negotiate Ukraine Over Europe's Head
Washington, Moscow and Beijing increasingly treat the end of the Ukraine war as a bargain among themselves, so European governments and Kyiv keep losing influence over the terms while being asked to fund the outcome.
Veracity: Plausible
70/100- If true, who benefits
If Washington requires Russian consent to any security guarantee, Moscow gains a veto over Ukraine's postwar security and US envoys gain a faster route to a deal. European governments would then pay for reconstruction and defense under terms they did not set.
- The nuance
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, and Steve Witkoff confirmed the November 10 and 11 round and described its focus as postwar security, de-escalation and humanitarian issues. I could not independently locate the November Rubio remark, though TASS reported in January that he acknowledged Russia had not consented to Western guarantees, so the reported "shift toward Moscow" may restate an existing position.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
The terms are being shaped by the parties with the most leverage. Washington controls the weapons supply and sanctions relief. Moscow holds the territory and is advancing on the battlefield. Beijing is the host whose agreement Russia needs for any long-term arrangement. Rubio's remark that guarantees must suit Moscow means the United States will not back a security commitment Russia rejects. That leaves European governments to fund reconstruction and security arrangements they do not design, and Kyiv with a choice between territory and continued aid. Leaving a ceasefire off the agenda shows both sides expect to gain more by fighting through the winter. The precedent is the 2014 and 2015 Minsk process: territorial lines were frozen without a settlement, and fighting resumed later. The likelier outcome is no ceasefire from this round and a framework on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues within weeks, while the main territorial bargain moves to a direct Trump-Putin channel. That forecast would be wrong if Kyiv publicly accepts a withdrawal from part of Donetsk in exchange for named guarantees.
Synthesized from: The New York Times · Komsomolskaya Pravda · Kyiv Independent · Kommersant · BFM.ru
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