Gold Holds Near 4,000 Dollars and Silver Jumps as War and Fiat Doubts Drive Hard-Money Demand

With a naval blockade back in force around the Strait of Hormuz and inflation still above target across the major economies, the assets tied to hard money are holding firm. Gold traded near 4,037 to 4,048 dollars an ounce on July 15, little changed on the day, while silver climbed about 2.8 percent to roughly 59 dollars an ounce, a larger gain than gold this month. Bitcoin, the non-sovereign asset investors increasingly group with the metals, traded near 62,500 dollars, lower on the day and well below its level a year earlier.

The demand has a straightforward logic. When a regional war reinstates an oil premium and central banks are caught between persistent prices and slowing growth, holders of paper currencies look for supply that no government can expand at will. That is the same impulse that has drawn central banks themselves toward bullion, and it explains why silver, which carries both monetary and industrial demand, has moved further than gold.

Supply politics reinforced the demand. The Council of the European Union adopted a decision banning the purchase, import, or transport of gold originating from Sudan, aiming to cut off a revenue source funding the country's war, and it also barred exports of mercury and cyanide used in artisanal mining. The measure narrows the pool of metal that can legally reach European refiners, one more constraint on supply at a moment when geopolitical demand, sharpened by the renewed US-Iran fighting, is already strong.