Morning Edition · Wednesday, July 15, 2026Published at 1:13 AM EDT · New York

United States to Withdraw All Troops From Iraq by September 30

Trump told visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi that a 23-year military presence will end, with Baghdad linking the exit to disarming Iran-aligned militias.

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United States to Withdraw All Troops From Iraq by September 30

The United States will fully withdraw its forces from Iraq by September 30, ending a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion. The announcement came during a White House visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, where President Donald Trump said the country no longer needs American troops and pointed to Iraq's expanding commercial ties with international oil companies.

Roughly 2,500 American personnel remained in Iraq after years of drawdowns, including the January closure of the Ain al-Assad base. Al-Zaidi's government has linked the withdrawal to disarming the militias that hold significant military and political power in Iraq and that Tehran backs to varying degrees, a task Baghdad says must be complete by the same September deadline. The most powerful of those groups reject disarmament, which makes the timeline uncertain.

The timing is notable. Washington is pulling its ground forces out of Iraq in the same week it has escalated a direct military confrontation with neighboring Iran, resuming strikes and a naval blockade while Iranian missiles land on US-aligned Gulf states. The move fits a broader pattern in which the United States is reducing fixed troop commitments in favor of naval and air power projected from offshore, a posture that reduces its visible presence while keeping the capacity to strike.

Part of a tracked trend

US Retreats to Offshore Force Projection

Washington keeps trading fixed overseas garrisons for naval and air power projected from a distance, reducing its visible footprint while shifting security burdens onto local governments.

Veracity: Corroborated

86/100

If true, who benefits: Washington reduces fixed-base risk while oil majors expanding in Iraq gain if output stays stable; Iraq's government absorbs the disarmament burden.
The nuance: The Pentagon and Prime Minister al-Zaidi confirm the September 30 exit, but it largely executes a 2024 Biden-era US-Iraq agreement rather than a new Trump decision, and the militia-disarmament linkage is a claim Baghdad cannot yet enforce.

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What this means

Removing US ground forces from Iraq while striking Iran shifts Washington's regional approach from permanent bases to long-range strike power, which changes who bears the risk. Iraq's government, caught between American pressure to disarm Iran-aligned militias and those militias' resistance, becomes the central actor, and the outcome shapes whether Iraqi oil output and export routes stay stable for the major oil companies now expanding there. If disarmament stalls, the withdrawal could leave a contested security vacuum next to an active war.

What to watch

Whether the militia disarmament Baghdad promised actually proceeds by September 30, because failure would mean the US leaves an unresolved standoff behind it.
Whether Iraqi oil exports and foreign operators continue normally through the transition, which would show markets judge the withdrawal as orderly rather than destabilizing.
Whether the same offshore posture is applied to other US deployments, which would confirm a durable shift away from fixed overseas bases.

Observations to monitor, not financial advice.

2 sources

Synthesized from: Kommersant · TASS