Morning Edition · Wednesday, October 7, 2026Published at 1:05 AM EDT · New York
Gulf crude exports have climbed back above pre-war levels, but the UK maritime security agency has logged nine attacks in the area this month, half of September's total.

Oman's air force evacuated injured crew from the MT On Peace, a Panama-flagged tanker that was struck on Tuesday about nine nautical miles off the Omani port of Limah in the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported that India's Foreign Ministry said 11 of the 12 injured crew members are Indian nationals. Business Standard reported that 17 of the 19 crew were Indian and that no group had claimed the attack. New Delhi called the continuing attacks on shipping "a cause of deep concern" and asked for them to stop immediately.
The attack adds to a growing tally. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) has logged nine attacks in the strait so far in October, half of its total for September, Bloomberg reported. Bloomberg attributed the increase to Iran. Three tankers were hit by unidentified projectiles over the weekend.
The higher attack rate comes as volumes return. Middle Eastern crude exports passed 18 million barrels a day on several days in late September, above pre-war levels, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC. Prices have not fallen as flows recovered. OilPrice notes that Brent has stayed above $100 for most of the past month, even though tanker trackers and banks report that flows have recovered. Part of the reason is that the recovered flows depend on a large US military commitment to escort tankers along a southern route close to the coast of Oman. Brent settled near $100.30 on Tuesday. Crude then rose in Asian trading on Wednesday as storms and air strikes threatened supply.
Gas markets show a similar pattern. An Iranian strike in March on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex put 17% of the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity out of service. Exporters whose cargoes do not pass through the strait, mainly in the United States, have won business from European and Asian buyers since then.
Part of a tracked trend
Hormuz Chokepoint Repricing
Recurring Gulf conflict forces energy exporters and importers to build costly workarounds around the Strait of Hormuz, permanently raising the risk premium embedded in Gulf trade and infrastructure.
If Iran is behind the strikes, Tehran gains leverage by raising the cost of every cargo even as volumes recover, while producers outside the Gulf, United States (US) liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters and war-risk insurers collect the premium that Asian importers such as India pay.
India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) confirmed that a projectile hit the MT On Peace and injured 12 crew, 11 of them Indian, but New Delhi named no attacker and nobody has claimed the strike, so Bloomberg's link to Iran rests on the wider pattern of attacks rather than evidence about this ship, and the US and Iran have disputed each other's accounts of earlier Hormuz incidents.
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Synthesized from: Al Jazeera · OilPrice · Investing.com Commodities · OilPrice (Natural Gas)
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What this means
The market is now pricing the cost of moving each barrel. Naval escorts, war-risk insurance and crew danger add a per-cargo cost that does not fall as volumes rise. That cost explains why Brent stays near $100 while exports exceed pre-war levels. The parties exposed are Asian importers that buy Gulf crude (India first, as Wednesday's rate hike shows), the countries that supply most tanker crews, and shipowners whose insurance terms reset with every incident. Producers outside the Gulf and US LNG exporters gain. The consensus treats recovered flows as a sign of normalisation. The rising attack count shows the opposite: a supply that holds steady only because of a security effort that can fail. The precedent is the 1987–88 "Tanker War," when US-escorted convoys kept Gulf oil moving while attacks continued until the Iran-Iraq ceasefire. The desk's read: while UKMTO's attack count keeps rising, Brent is likelier to stay at or above $100 over the coming weeks regardless of export volumes. A sustained fall in the attack rate, or an enrichment deal between Washington and Tehran, would prove that read wrong.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Comments
1Oct 7, 5:05 AM · edited
Nine attacks by October 6 is about 1.5 a day, roughly 2.5 times September's rate of 18 over 30 days, so at that pace October would pass September's total around mid month.