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Morning Edition · Saturday, October 17, 2026Published at 1:06 AM EDT · New York
US holds more secret talks with Myanmar's military government in Tokyo as Washington looks at heavy rare earths
The meetings continue a reversal of US isolation of the generals that began with a September visit to Naypyitaw, and the rare-earth deposits under discussion lie largely in territory held by ethnic armies and feed China's processing industry.
US officials have held more secret talks in Tokyo with Myanmar's military-backed rulers, according to sources cited in an exclusive Reuters report. The meetings continue an outreach first reported this month. Reuters reported on October 8 that the Trump administration had opened direct talks with the government led by Min Aung Hlaing, reversing Washington's policy of isolating the generals since the 2021 coup.
Michael Vance, the assistant secretary of state for intelligence and research, has led the effort. He took part in talks in Naypyitaw on September 15-16, after an earlier meeting in Tokyo in June. The stated goals were to shut down scam centers that target Americans and to secure the release of American businessman Adam Castillo. Reuters reported that officials also discussed access to Myanmar's large deposits of heavy rare earths, which are used in electric-vehicle motors and wind turbines. Thai daily The Nation described the September meeting as a shift to engaging the military government directly.
Taking those minerals out of the ground will be hard. Most of the deposits lie in territory held by ethnic armed groups fighting the military government, not in areas Naypyitaw controls. China is currently the main importer of Myanmar's rare earths and, according to Reuters, could treat any US role as a challenge. Japan's role as host matters too. Tokyo is the largest Asian buyer seeking rare-earth supply outside China, and it offers both governments a venue away from scrutiny in Washington and Naypyitaw.
Part of a tracked trend
The Rare-Earth Scramble
Washington and its allies will keep trading diplomatic recognition and sanctions relief for access to heavy rare earths outside Chinese control, recasting relations with isolated regimes even where physical supply stays in Beijing's orbit.
Veracity: Corroborated
78/100- If true, who benefits
Myanmar's military government gains a route to legitimacy and sanctions relief, and Washington gains a channel to pursue scam-center enforcement and access to heavy rare earths outside Chinese control.
- The nuance
The Tokyo talks rest on anonymous sources in Reuters reporting, and no Myanmar or Chinese official confirmation was found. Reuters also cites researchers who say many scam hubs operate in areas held by army-backed militias and send part of their proceeds to the military, which casts doubt on Naypyitaw's ability to deliver on enforcement.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
China controls most heavy rare-earth separation, and part of the raw feedstock comes from Myanmar's northern borderlands. A US channel to Naypyitaw is an attempt to compete for that feedstock at its source. The constraint is physical control. The military government cannot deliver ore from mines it does not hold, and the ethnic armies that do hold them trade across the Chinese border. Beijing has the stronger position through its processing monopoly, border trade and ties to several armed groups, so it can raise the cost of any US deal without blocking talks. Markets treat rare-earth supply as effectively controlled by China, and a US-Myanmar opening would not change that within a year. It does show that Washington now ranks mineral access above sanctions policy on human rights. The precedent is the 2012 US opening to Myanmar, which brought investment but little strategic shift away from China. The likelier result over the next few months is a narrow deal on scam centers and prisoners, with minerals discussed but not delivered. US sanctions relief on Myanmar's state mining companies would show a mineral deal is real.
Synthesized from: Investing.com Commodities · ThePrint · The Nation Thailand
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