Netanyahu's Likud Leads Israel's Count but Neither Bloc Nears the 61 Seats Needed to Govern

Israel's first general election since the October 7, 2023 attacks has produced no majority. After 31% of votes were counted, the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had 59 projected seats and the opposition "change bloc" had 46, Israeli business daily Globes reported in Hebrew. Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, according to Globes. At 37% counted, Ynet's tally showed 57 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 47 for the change bloc and 16 for Arab parties, with Likud on 28 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar! on 21.

Exit polls earlier showed a closer race. Channels 13 and 11 put both blocs at 51 seats, and Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 to the opposition's 49, Axios reported. Japan's Jiji Press summarized the result in its headline: "Neither the governing nor the opposition camp reaches a majority, right-wing Likud likely the largest party, Netanyahu eager to continue in government." Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, a former military chief, told supporters after midnight that they would form the next government.

Netanyahu urged rivals to join a "Jewish coalition" and to exclude Arab parties, the Financial Times reported. That appeal matters because the Arab parties' 16 projected seats make it hard for the opposition to reach 61 without them. US President Donald Trump claimed a role in the outcome. Ynet's headline on his first reaction reads, in translation: "Thanks to me Netanyahu was not defeated, there is a tie in Israel" (Ynet).

Investors had expected this result. The Tel Aviv market fell from early October as polls pointed to a deadlock, and JPMorgan estimated that the vote could move the shekel by as much as 3% in either direction, The Times of Israel reported. Final counting could take days.