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Morning Edition · Saturday, November 14, 2026Published at 12:15 AM EST · New York
Iran drafts next year's budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero
Brent was headed for a second weekly loss near $96 a barrel after President Trump said a deal with Iran was not needed to end the war and the US blockade would stay.
Iran is drafting next year's budget on the premise that oil revenue could fall to zero. Mohammad Ghasemi, a senior budget official, told the government on Monday to prepare for that scenario, according to OilPrice, which said the country appears to be weeks away from it. Iranian outlets reported Ghasemi's warning in more detail. According to Entekhab, he said the war has hurt the budget in two ways, by cutting revenue and by raising spending, and that the deficit should not be financed by borrowing from the central bank.
The shortfall is not new. In the current year's budget, revenue from oil and oil products had already been cut to 263 thousand billion tomans from 605 thousand billion the year before, Donya-e-Eqtesad reported. Tanker trackers cited by Bloomberg reported in October that Iran's main loading terminals had stood empty for weeks under the US naval blockade.
The central bank will now explain its response. The state news agency IRNA said the governor of the Central Bank of Iran will go to parliament this week to report on monetary, currency and credit policy, banking supervision and economic developments.
The global market moved the other way. Oil fell more than 2% for the week as fears of renewed US-Iran fighting eased. Brent traded near $95.50 to $96 on Friday, on course for a 2.3% weekly drop after a 16% fall the week before. President Trump wrote on Truth Social that a deal with Iran was not necessary to end the war and that the blockade and sanctions would stay. He also moved Vice President JD Vance off Iran diplomacy. Supply risks remain, including Iranian attacks on supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities at Yanbu, according to market reports.
The market has priced in Iran's exports staying off the market. Iran, meanwhile, is preparing for a long period without them.
Part of a tracked trend
Blockade Becomes Iran's Fiscal Crisis
As long as the US blockade holds, Iran's lost oil income will keep turning into budget deficits that push the state toward central-bank financing, rial depreciation and capital flight by domestic savers.
Veracity: Corroborated
78/100- If true, who benefits
The framing helps Washington, because it presents the blockade as effective. It also helps Iran's budget officials, who can use the zero-oil scenario to argue for spending cuts and against central-bank financing. Holders of rial savings carry the cost if that rule is dropped.
- The nuance
Al Jazeera confirms that Ghasemi described zero oil revenue as a contingency to prepare for, not a forecast. Tehran has promised an oil-free budget since at least 2019, so part of the message is long-standing policy language and not only a reaction to the blockade.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
The pressure on Iran works through its budget. With oil income near zero, Tehran can cut spending, raise taxes on a shrinking economy, or have the central bank finance the deficit. Iranian governments have usually chosen the third option, and the result has been a weaker rial and higher inflation. Ghasemi's warning against central-bank borrowing is the official position. Whether the governor's testimony this week holds to it will show what Tehran can actually do. Iranian households and businesses holding rial savings are the most exposed, and they have every reason to move into dollars, gold or property. In the oil market, prices near $96 with Iran's barrels already missing mean the risk premium now depends on the Gulf routes. The consensus reads Trump's comments as lowering the chance of renewed war. They also mean no settlement and no return of Iranian supply. The likelier outcome over the coming months is faster money creation in Iran and a weaker rial, with Brent held up by the risk to shipping more than by lost barrels. This depends on the blockade staying in place. It would be wrong if Washington and Tehran agree on terms that let Kharg Island resume loadings.
Synthesized from: OilPrice · Investing.com Commodities · IRNA (Farsi) · Entekhab
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Comments
1Nov 14, 5:15 AM
With oil revenue already cut about 57% to 263 thousand billion tomans and central bank borrowing ruled out, losing that sum leaves tax increases, spending cuts or debt sales to close the gap.