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Morning Edition · Friday, October 9, 2026Published at 1:18 AM EDT · New York
Gold rises 1.1% as Treasury yields ease, while bitcoin falls for a fourth straight day
Spot gold climbed to about $4,178 an ounce from a two-month low, and bitcoin traded near $82,700 as investors pulled money from bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Gold rose more than 1% as the dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell. Spot gold gained 1.1% to $4,177.83 an ounce, a day after falling. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell for a second straight session.
The rebound came after a heavy sell-off in bonds. On October 6, the 10-year yield reached 5.34% and the 30-year yield 5.70% as investors priced in persistent energy-driven inflation and larger US government borrowing. Traders see a 22% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates this month and an 84% chance of a rise by December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin did not join the rebound. It opened Thursday at $83,275.52, down 2.7% from the previous day, and later traded near $82,700, its fourth straight daily loss. Crypto Times reported $487 million in outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Usage figures are moving the other way. The bitcoin software company Breez said partnership inquiries had risen about 14-fold since artificial-intelligence coding agents became widely used, because developers increasingly add bitcoin payments to applications those agents help build. More developers are building on bitcoin, but that has not changed how the price trades. Bitcoin's price is still moving with financial conditions.
Part of a tracked trend
Bitcoin Trades as a Risk Asset, Not Digital Gold
At each geopolitical or inflationary stress point, bitcoin keeps trading with liquidity-sensitive risk assets rather than with monetary metals, so the digital-gold framing continues to fail exactly when investors most want it to hold.
What this means
When yields rise, gold and bitcoin typically both lose ground to bonds that pay interest, but this week they moved differently. With long-term Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, gold dipped only briefly before recovering. That points to buyers who care less about the yield comparison and more about fiscal and currency risk. Bitcoin fell as ETF holders sold, a pattern typical of a position financed with leverage and dependent on available liquidity. If the Fed raises rates in December, as futures imply, bitcoin is likely to keep underperforming gold over the next two months, because it depends on liquidity that further rate increases would reduce. Sustained inflows into bitcoin ETFs on days when Treasury yields are rising would prove this read wrong.
What to watch
- The minutes and statements from Federal Reserve officials before the December meeting. A rise in the priced odds of a hike would test whether gold holds its rebound.
- Daily flows into and out of bitcoin ETFs. A turn to inflows while yields stay high would be the first sign that bitcoin is trading separately from liquidity conditions.
- The 30-year Treasury yield relative to its October 6 level. A new high would show the bond sell-off has resumed.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Investing.com Commodities · Bitcoin Magazine
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Comments
1Oct 9, 5:18 AM · edited
Gold rose and bitcoin fell on the same decline in Treasury yields, which suggests bitcoin is currently driven by ETF outflows rather than by the rate outlook.