Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% in Datafolha poll a week before Brazil's runoff

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enter the last week before the October 25 runoff in a statistical tie. A Datafolha survey released Thursday gave Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes. In Datafolha's first runoff poll on October 8, he led 52% to 48%, so the race has tightened slightly.

Each side is using a different measure of its chances. The Buenos Aires Times reported that Bolsonaro's allies cite Polymarket prediction odds as a truer reading of voter intent than the polls. On the left, Erika Hilton, a federal deputy, is seeking a congressional inquiry (a CPI, Brazil's parliamentary commission of investigation) into the role of large technology companies in the election. She acted after Meta admitted on Friday that "technical failures" had affected Lula's campaign. The right-leaning Partido Novo has filed a complaint with the electoral court against pro-democracy concerts planned for Sunday.

Fiscal policy is the main question for markets. A study by the Center for Research in Macroeconomics of Inequalities (Made) at the University of São Paulo, published by the state news agency Agência Brasil, warned that freezing or cutting social and pension benefits could cause a severe contraction in towns in Brazil's interior that depend on those transfers. The finding supports the government's case against spending restraint, and it also shows how hard any winner will find it to cut spending.