Morning Edition · Sunday, October 18, 2026Published at 1:07 AM EDT · New York
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the waiver a pause to study the economic cost, a week after the White House eased sanctions in exchange for Russian diesel.
On October 16, President Donald Trump waived key provisions of the Graham Act. That law authorized punitive tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, and the waiver gives relief to India. The executive order used the law's national-interest exemption to suspend duties of up to 100% on imports from major buyers of Russian crude and gas, along with most of its other sanctions. The penalties were due to take effect within days. China, the other large buyer, also benefits.
Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, spoke before leaving for Uzbekistan and India. He described the order as a "60-day pause". "I think the President wants to take the 60-day period of time to sort of analyze what imposing both sanctions and tariffs will mean to the global economy and even to the U.S. economy," he said. Rubio also denied that Washington had ordered limits on Ukrainian use of Starlink. Ukrainian outlets reported the denial as a dispute over facts, while Russian state media presented it as a rebuke of President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The waiver follows a deal Trump announced on October 9. Under it, Moscow agreed to supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes after that, and the Treasury issued a temporary general license through April 7. Al Jazeera reported that the arrangement has opened a new rift with Europe over Ukraine. The US midterm elections are on November 3.
Moscow presented the move as proof that its oil is in demand. Alexander Novak, Russia's deputy prime minister, said the first tanker of crude from the Vostok Oil project has been loaded and that "many countries want to buy Russian oil."
The waiver did not lower oil prices. Brent crude settled 3.7% higher at $109.86 on Friday, which MercoPress said was its highest close since May. The outlet attributed the increase to fears of escalation in the Middle East and to doubts about how much diesel Russia can actually deliver.
Part of a tracked trend
Sanctions Bend to Pump Prices
Each time high fuel prices threaten Washington's domestic politics, it trades temporary sanctions relief for Russian energy supply. Russian barrels regain Western market access step by step, and the deterrent value of US sanctions declines.
Indian and Chinese refiners can keep buying discounted Russian crude without facing US tariffs, Russian exporters keep their revenue, and the White House gains time to hold down fuel prices before the November 3 midterms.
The October 16 waiver is independently confirmed and covers nearly every operative section of the law, so "60-day pause" is Rubio's description of intent rather than a stated expiry, and the Starlink limits he addressed were imposed by SpaceX, with the White House denying any role while Elon Musk said otherwise.
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Synthesized from: The Hindu · Kyiv Independent · BFM.ru · MercoPress
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What this means
The waiver lets Indian and Chinese refiners keep buying discounted Russian barrels without risking their US export markets, so Russian oil revenue holds up and the Graham Act loses force as a threat. The market had already priced little risk of the tariffs being enforced, which is why Brent rose anyway. The supply shortage comes from the Gulf and from Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries, not from sanctions. The closest precedent is November 2018, when Washington granted 180-day waivers to eight buyers of Iranian oil on the eve of a midterm vote, then let them lapse in May 2019 once crude had eased. The desk's read is that the 60-day pause will be extended or quietly rolled over before it expires in mid-December, as long as Brent stays above $100 and diesel stays scarce. The view that this is a short, reversible pause probably underrates how much leverage high pump prices give Moscow. The forecast would be wrong if Washington reimposes the tariffs while crude prices are still high, something that becomes more plausible only if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and prices fall far enough to make enforcement cheap.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Comments
1Oct 18, 5:07 AM
Counting 60 days from the October 16 order puts the tariff decision on India and China around December 15, the date to watch for Indian refiners' Russian crude purchases and Brent.