Morning Edition · Sunday, October 18, 2026Published at 1:07 AM EDT · New York
A senior aide to the prime minister visited Yasukuni Shrine, and the International Monetary Fund welcomed a temporary tax cut that Japan will finance alongside a larger military budget.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China if the parliamentary schedule allows, the Japan Times reported. The summit, set for Shenzhen on November 18 and 19, often gives Japanese and Chinese leaders a chance to meet. Ties have been frozen since Takaichi said in November 2025 that Japan could intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked. At the 2025 APEC meeting in South Korea she met Taiwan's representative, and China's foreign ministry lodged a formal protest calling the meeting a serious violation of the one-China principle.
Signals from Tokyo this week pointed in different directions. Jiji Press reported that Wakamiya, an aide to the prime minister, visited Yasukuni Shrine. Beijing regards the shrine as a symbol of Japanese wartime aggression. Russia's TASS, citing Kyodo News, reported that Japan may raise taxes to pay for military programs. Japanese reporting has said the government plans to bring forward its target of defense spending at 2% of output, partly funded by higher income tax.
Fiscal policy is moving in two directions at once. Rahul Anand, the IMF's mission chief for Japan, called the government's temporary tax cut plan a "very welcome step". Tokyo is cutting some taxes temporarily while it considers permanent increases for defense, and Japanese long-term bond yields are already elevated.
Part of a tracked trend
Indo-Pacific Arms Race Accelerates
Over the next 3-6 months a sharpening regional arms race drives Japan and its neighbors to expand militaries and export weapons—Tokyo moving to sell missiles—as maritime confrontations with China multiply and Asian rearmament gathers pace.
Japanese exporters with large Chinese sales and holders of Japanese government bonds gain from any thaw, while Beijing keeps leverage by tying a summit to Takaichi's position on Taiwan.
Takaichi's conditional attendance is confirmed by Bloomberg, but the aide's shrine visit rests on a single Jiji report. The article also omits that Takaichi sent her own ritual offering to Yasukuni while staying away in person, and that South Korea's Kyunghyang Shinmun reported Chinese President Xi Jinping had rejected Trump's urging to talk with her.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
Japan is rearming while trying to keep open a diplomatic channel to its largest trading partner, and it is paying for the rearmament with a mix of debt and new taxes. Japanese government bond investors and the yen are exposed. So are Japanese exporters with large Chinese sales, which carry the cost if the freeze continues. Beijing wants a statement on Taiwan before any summit. Takaichi's domestic base rewards gestures such as the Yasukuni visit, so the room for compromise on either side is narrow. The precedent is the 2014 APEC summit in Beijing. Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping met after a two-year freeze, but only after officials agreed a four-point text in advance. The desk's read is that a short Takaichi-Xi meeting in Shenzhen is possible only if both sides agree a similar text within weeks, and that without one, Takaichi will cite parliament and send a deputy. The read would be wrong if Beijing confirms a bilateral meeting without any Japanese statement on Taiwan.
Synthesized from: The Japan Times · TASS (Russian) · Jiji Press · The Japan Times (Business)
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