Morning Edition · Monday, October 19, 2026Published at 1:11 AM EDT · New York
The Kremlin confirms that talks on a meeting on the sidelines of next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit are under way, Ukraine is not invited, and a senior US official says Trump has not agreed.
Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, has proposed a summit with President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported the proposal on Sunday, and Reuters relayed the report, describing the terms under discussion as favorable to Moscow. Putin made the suggestion during the October 9 call with Trump that also produced the diesel deal. The Kremlin wants the meeting held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, confirmed that discussions are taking place. He said there is "no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility." A senior US official told the Journal that Trump had not agreed but could be receptive. The Hindu placed the proposal in the context of warming ties between Trump and Putin after the diesel purchase. ZeroHedge noted that Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited, despite his position as Ukraine's president.
Russian officials set out Moscow's position the same morning. Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the State Duma, said the European "coalition of the willing" that has offered Ukraine security guarantees would become a "coalition of those who want money", TASS reported. In separate remarks carried by RIA Novosti, he said the West had destroyed Ukraine's statehood and economy.
The proposed format puts the main decision with three nuclear powers and leaves out both Kyiv and the European Union. Each of the three wants something different. Putin wants any settlement ratified by both the United States and China, which would separate Washington from European capitals. Xi would gain standing as co-guarantor of a European settlement at no military cost. Trump wants lower fuel prices and a deal before and after the midterms. None of the three can deliver Ukraine's consent alone. Washington's main lever over Kyiv is the supply of air-defense interceptors.
Part of a tracked trend
Great Powers Negotiate Ukraine Over Europe's Head
Washington, Moscow and Beijing increasingly treat the end of the Ukraine war as a bargain among themselves, so European governments and Kyiv keep losing influence over the terms while being asked to fund the outcome.
The Kremlin gains most if this framing holds, because a three-way format would let Moscow negotiate Ukraine's future without Kyiv or the European Union in the room. Beijing would gain standing as a co-guarantor. Holders of European defense equities and Ukrainian sovereign bonds carry the pricing risk.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, confirmed only that discussions are under way. The Journal's account that Putin raised the idea on the October 9 call rests on a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the talks. The Kremlin had already floated a Shenzhen trilateral in early September. Neither Beijing nor the White House has accepted the format.
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Synthesized from: Investing.com (Reuters) · The Hindu · ZeroHedge · TASS
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What this means
The mechanism is recognition. A three-way format makes Beijing a formal party to the European security settlement, which supports the view that the United States and China are the two powers that matter most here. It also lowers the European Union's role to paying for whatever is agreed. Holders of European defense equities and Ukrainian sovereign bonds are most exposed to the terms. A deal that freezes the front line would favor reconstruction plays and hurt the case for European rearmament spending. A deal that collapses would do the opposite. The market has not priced a trilateral meeting, because the Kremlin itself calls it hypothetical. The precedent is the August 2025 Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, which produced warm statements and no ceasefire. The likelier outcome is a Trump-Putin encounter at or around Shenzhen, with China as host rather than a signed three-way framework, and this would come within weeks if Trump attends APEC. This depends on Trump confirming his attendance. The desk's read is wrong if Washington publicly accepts the trilateral format before APEC, or if Kyiv and the main European capitals are given a formal seat.
What to watch
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Comments
1Oct 19, 5:11 AM
The proposed November 18 and 19 Shenzhen meeting would fall inside a full 60 day sanctions review, so the waived Graham Act tariffs would remain available as US leverage at the table.