Trump waives Graham Act sanctions on Russian energy, and Brent falls toward $108

The waiver works through two channels. It narrows the discount on Russian barrels, because buyers in India, Turkey and China no longer face the threat of a US tariff, and that raises what Moscow earns per barrel. It also slightly lowers the margins of refiners that make diesel in the Atlantic Basin. Russia's budget and Asian refiners that buy Russian oil gain. Kyiv loses leverage, and so does any Gulf or US exporter that sells diesel into a tight market. The market had already priced the October 9 diesel deal. The new information is that the White House will set aside a sanctions law it signed four weeks ago, telling every buyer of Russian oil that the 100% tariff can be negotiated. The common view is that this is a short pre-election gesture. That view misses the timing: the 60-day review ends in mid-December, after the midterms and inside the winter season of peak heating-oil demand. The precedents point the same way. In 2022, Washington released 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before the midterms, and it later licensed Chevron to pump in Venezuela when fuel prices strained domestic politics. Both measures lasted much longer than first advertised. The likelier outcome is that the review ends with the waiver extended in some form, provided Brent stays above $100 while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The desk's read is wrong if Hormuz reopens and crude falls far enough to give Washington room to reimpose the tariffs, or if Congress passes a measure that blocks the waiver.