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Morning Edition · Sunday, October 25, 2026Published at 1:18 AM EDT · New York
Brazil votes in a presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro with polls showing a tie
The real has gained about 4% against the dollar since the first round, which Flávio Bolsonaro won narrowly, and prediction-market bettors favor him.
Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday in the runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. On Saturday, more than one million Lula supporters gathered on Rio de Janeiro's best-known beach, according to The Guardian. In Brasília, the state news agency Agência Brasil reported, in Portuguese, that rallies for the two candidates took place only two kilometers apart, and supporters of the two sides provoked each other.
Friday's final televised debate on TV Globo was calmer than the first, and Flávio Bolsonaro apologized twice to Lula. MercoPress reports that the candidates went into the debate level in the polls. Lula accused his opponent of "licking Trump's boots", which made relations with Washington a campaign issue. Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), asked voters to stay alert and judge carefully the information that circulates on election day.
The polls have been wrong before in this election. Before the first round on October 4, Datafolha's final survey showed Lula ahead by 45% to 42%. The count gave Flávio Bolsonaro 47.03% and Lula 45.16%. Markets have adjusted to that result. The real has gained about 4% against the dollar since the first round, and on the Polymarket prediction market the probability assigned to a Flávio Bolsonaro win rose to 83% on Saturday.
The result matters beyond Brazil. Argentina's Clarín lists the companies most exposed to the vote, including Arcor, Mercado Libre, Techint and Despegar, because Brazil is central to their revenue and supply chains.
Part of a tracked trend
Emerging-Market Elections Turn on Fiscal Credibility
In large emerging markets, polarised elections keep making fiscal rules and congressional arithmetic, rather than the identity of the winner, the main determinant of currency and local-rate pricing.
Veracity: Corroborated
78/100- If true, who benefits
Bolsonaro allies and investors positioned for a Bolsonaro win gain if markets read the first-round upset as a fiscal mandate. A tie narrative helps Lula's campaign keep its supporters turning out.
- The nuance
The first-round count of 47.03% to 45.16% and the prediction-market odds are corroborated. The polling comparison is shaky, though. Reporting puts the final Datafolha first-round survey at 42% for Lula and 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the three-point Lula lead the article cites matches a runoff-scenario figure. Also, Polymarket has priced Flávio Bolsonaro near 84% since October 5, so the 83% figure on Saturday was not a new rise.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. .
Synthesized from: The Guardian · MercoPress · Agência Brasil · Clarín
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Comments
1Oct 25, 5:18 AM
Because the real gained about 4% after a first round Flávio Bolsonaro won and bettors favor him, a Lula win on Sunday should move the currency more sharply than a Bolsonaro win.