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Morning Edition · Sunday, October 25, 2026Published at 1:18 AM EDT · New York
Gold falls below $4,000 as oil-driven inflation revives bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase
Spot gold lost about 4% over the week, its worst week since June, while the Nasdaq Composite had its biggest one-day drop since June after earnings revived doubts about artificial-intelligence spending.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,998.49 an ounce by mid-afternoon in New York on Friday. It was the first time gold had traded below $4,000 since mid-July and its lowest level in three months. The metal lost about 4% over the week, its worst weekly performance since June. CNBC attributed the decline to higher energy prices, which raised inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve, chaired by Kevin Warsh, will raise rates when it meets on October 27 and 28.
Silver also fell. Kitco quoted it at $53.80 an ounce, down 67 cents. Investing.com published UBS's assessment of whether silver can recover from its latest sell-off. In its recent silver outlook, the Swiss bank cut its estimate of the 2026 supply deficit to 60 million to 70 million ounces, from 300 million. It cited cooling investment demand, weaker industrial use and recovering mine output. UBS still expects gold to trend higher and treats gold as the main support for silver. Kitco's weekly survey found that Wall Street analysts doubt gold's near-term strength, while a minority of retail respondents remain bullish.
Equities fell over the same days. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, its biggest one-day drop since June, after several earnings reports raised new concerns about the cost of the artificial-intelligence (AI) spending race. On Friday, technology shares stabilized, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 626 points, or 1.18%, to 52,241.55, and the S&P 500 lost 0.43% to 7,629.92. Bullion dealer APMEX linked gold's fall below $4,000 to the oil spike and the AI sell-off together. In falling markets, investors often sell liquid holdings such as gold to raise cash.
Seen from a sound-money perspective, the week shows how gold is being priced right now. A war in the Gulf did not lift it. Expected Federal Reserve tightening pushed it down, as markets priced higher real interest rates.
Part of a tracked trend
Renewed Fed Tightening Fears Rattle Global Markets
Over the next 3-6 months stronger US data revives expectations of Fed rate hikes, driving a firmer dollar, equity selloffs in export-heavy markets, and pressure on hard assets as the IMF warns of recurring economic shocks.
What this means
Gold is being priced through the expected path of US real interest rates and through forced selling by leveraged equity investors, not through the war. The most exposed holders are recent buyers who own gold through exchange-traded funds and use leverage, together with gold miners' shares. The desk's view is that the consensus is wrong to treat a rate increase as plainly bad for gold. A Federal Reserve that raises rates in response to an oil supply shock slows growth without adding a single barrel of supply. The 2022 cycle is the precedent: gold fell by about a fifth between March and November as the Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively, then recovered once markets judged that rates were near their peak. If the Federal Reserve holds on October 28 and speaks cautiously about energy-driven inflation, the likelier outcome is that gold stabilizes within weeks as rate-increase bets fade. If it raises rates in the week before the US midterm elections, expect more liquidation in precious metals in the short term. That move could then reverse within months if the increase weakens growth and equities. This read is wrong if US inflation data keep surprising upward outside energy, which would justify a longer tightening path.
What to watch
- The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 and how its statement describes energy prices. A description of a temporary supply shock would ease pressure on gold.
- Whether technology shares extend Thursday's losses. Further margin-driven selling would keep pressure on liquid holdings such as gold.
- Central-bank gold purchase data for October. Continued official buying would show that the sell-off is driven by private investors rather than by state reserve managers.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Investing.com · CNBC · Kitco · Hawaii Tribune-Herald (AP)
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Comments
1Oct 25, 5:18 AM
UBS's revision of the 2026 silver deficit from 300 million to 60 to 70 million ounces removes about 77% to 80% of the projected shortfall, leaving prices more dependent on investment flows than scarcity.