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Morning Edition · Thursday, November 12, 2026Published at 12:17 AM EST · New York
US Envoys Meet Putin in Moscow After Abu Dhabi Round Yields a Prisoner Swap but No Territorial Deal
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were set to see Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign investment fund, before the Kremlin talks, and Russia fired ballistic missiles at Kyiv hours after the Abu Dhabi session ended.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump's special envoys, will meet Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), before their talks with Vladimir Putin. Kommersant reported this (in Russian), citing Reuters. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign-policy aide, said the meeting would take place in the first half of Thursday, Lenta.ru reported. According to Interfax and Russian outlets, the agenda includes whether to bring European representatives into the negotiations and several options for security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe. The envoys are then due in Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Moscow visit follows two days of three-way talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. Russia and Ukraine agreed on a prisoner exchange, and US officials said a lack of trust between Kyiv and Moscow is preventing progress. NPR reported that Kushner called the swap the largest humanitarian release of the war. American mediators said gaps remain on major issues, including territory. NPR also reported that Russia's delegation refused to meet when European and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials were present. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's chief negotiator, said a deal was closer but that much depends on Ukraine, the United States and Europe.
Moscow briefed its own bloc. TASS reported that Putin discussed the Abu Dhabi talks with leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave no details. The war did not pause. The Kyiv Independent reported that Russia attacked Kyiv with ballistic missiles hours after the talks ended, and precise targets were not yet known. Ushakov also said a possible Putin-Trump meeting at the APEC gathering in Shenzhen is being worked out.
Part of a tracked trend
Great Powers Negotiate Ukraine Over Europe's Head
Washington, Moscow and Beijing increasingly treat the end of the Ukraine war as a bargain among themselves, so European governments and Kyiv keep losing influence over the terms while being asked to fund the outcome.
Veracity: Corroborated
82/100- If true, who benefits
Moscow gains a direct channel to Washington that sidelines European governments, and holders of sanctioned Russian assets gain if Kirill Dmitriev's commercial track advances, while Kyiv gains the return of prisoners.
- The nuance
The swap is agreed in principle with no final number, European officials held separate consultations in Abu Dhabi but did not join the three-way sessions, and the Moscow agenda and the prospect of a Putin-Trump meeting in Shenzhen come from Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov and Russian outlets, not from any US readout.
An open-source-intelligence read of how likely this story is true with its real nuance, not a judgment of any outlet. It assesses the claim, weighing independent and adversarial reporting. How we label confidence.
What this means
The format of the talks shows who holds the leverage. Washington and Moscow negotiate directly. Moscow consults its CSTO partners and refuses to negotiate directly with European and NATO officials, while European governments are asked to provide guarantees and money. Dmitriev's presence before the Kremlin meeting points to a commercial track running alongside the military one, covering sanctions relief, energy and investment. That track is what Moscow wants most and what Washington can offer without European consent. Russian assets and European defense budgets are directly exposed: the first gain if a commercial track advances, and the second rise if Europe is left to underwrite guarantees it did not negotiate. The consensus treats the prisoner swap as momentum. In practice humanitarian exchanges have repeatedly gone ahead while the territorial gap stayed fixed, including after the February round in Abu Dhabi. The likelier outcome is that the exchange happens within weeks, the territory question stays unresolved, and the decisive bargaining moves to a Putin-Trump meeting in Shenzhen. That outcome depends on Washington continuing to accept talks without European officials present. It is wrong if Moscow agrees to formal European participation or to a ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
Synthesized from: Kommersant · Investing.com · TASS · Kyiv Independent
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