The Polylog Global Intelligence Brief

Morning Edition · Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Macro

Oil's 5% Jump Lifts the Ten-Year Treasury Yield to 4.70% Before Wednesday's US Inflation Report

With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase has returned to about 50%, and bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 for a fourth straight day.

3 sources

Geopolitics

Iran Sets Blockade Removal as Its Price for Hormuz, as Iraqi Lawmakers Press for a US Withdrawal

Iranian state media describe an American carrier group strained by five months of deployment, while Washington moved President Trump out of Turkey on a decoy aircraft after an assassination threat.

3 sources
CorroboratedUpdated

Crypto

US Securities Regulator Schedules Vote on First Major Crypto Rulemaking as Bitcoin Slips Below $65,000

Wallets holding more than 10,000 bitcoin reached 90, the most in six months, even as smaller tokens led losses across the market.

2 sources

Markets

Libya's Largest Working Refinery Hit by a Third Drone Strike in Four Days

Libya's National Oil Corporation says it may declare force majeure and halt the 120,000-barrel-a-day Zawiya plant if the attacks continue, and no group has claimed responsibility.

3 sources
Corroborated

World

Colombia's Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake Kills at Least 132 People and Damages More Than 1,500 Buildings

Cali's mayor says 188 people are missing, and rescue teams are still working through collapsed structures in Pereira, Quibdó and Manizales.

2 sources

Geopolitics

Moscow's Air Defences Shoot Down Seven Drones as Ukraine Extends Strikes Deep Into Russia

Russia's foreign ministry says Ukrainian forces fired more than a thousand munitions a day at Russian territory over the past week, and a drone-danger regime was declared as far east as Chelyabinsk.

3 sources
Corroborated

Tech

China Loses a Long March 7A and Its Satellite 85 Seconds After Launch as Japan Puts a Navigation Satellite in Orbit

The failed rocket uses the YF-100 engine common to China's modern fleet, and the resulting investigation could delay Beijing's planned lunar missions.

2 sources

Geopolitics

The Iran War Has Exposed Gaps in US Weapons Stockpiles as Washington Presses Southeast Asia on Deterrence

Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby told a Manila forum the United States now prioritises practical defence cooperation over ideology, a shift that arrives as munitions inventories run down.

2 sources
Corroborated

World

New EU Border Checks Double Queues at Frankfurt and Amsterdam as Sweden Attacks Spain's Migrant Amnesty

Peak waiting times reached two hours at major airports, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson says mass regularisation threatens the integrity of the Schengen free-travel area.

2 sources
Plausible

Geopolitics

Malaysia Seizes an Israel-Bound Arms Shipment as Cyprus Weighs Buying Israeli Tanks

The container held at Tanjung Pelepas was consigned to Elbit Systems Land, while Nicosia considers Israeli armour to replace Soviet-era T-80s.

2 sources
Corroborated

World

The UN Is Auctioning Its Somalia Mission Equipment as American Funding Cuts Reach Africa's Aid Operations

The support office in Mogadishu has tendered for auctioneers to sell vehicles and generators, while the UN warns that funding shortfalls are deepening displacement in Sudan.

3 sources
Corroborated

World

Pakistan's Farmers Threaten a March on Rawalpindi as the World Bank Objects to Diverted Flood Funds

The Pakistan Kissan Ittehad has demanded the resignation of Punjab's chief minister by 25 September, and the World Bank warns that moving money from Balochistan housing to infrastructure would deepen poverty.

2 sources
Corroborated