The Polylog Global Intelligence Brief

Morning Edition · Sunday, October 25, 2026

Markets

Iran says mines disabled two supertankers near Hormuz as Brent settles at $116.72

Asian buyers are paying more for the war even though more oil now moves through the strait than before it began: shipping US crude to Asia now costs four times what it did in mid-August, and fuel oil in Singapore costs more than crude.

4 sources
Plausible

Markets

Gold falls below $4,000 as oil-driven inflation revives bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase

Spot gold lost about 4% over the week, its worst week since June, while the Nasdaq Composite had its biggest one-day drop since June after earnings revived doubts about artificial-intelligence spending.

4 sources

Macro

France's 10-year borrowing cost tops 5.1% as cost-of-living protests return for a second weekend

The gap between French and German 10-year yields reached about 172 basis points, and some French companies can now borrow more cheaply than the French state.

4 sources

World

Brazil votes in a presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro with polls showing a tie

The real has gained about 4% against the dollar since the first round, which Flávio Bolsonaro won narrowly, and prediction-market bettors favor him.

4 sources
Corroborated

Markets

Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion since May as corporate earnings miss forecasts

The CSI 300 entered a bear market last week, and MSCI China companies that have reported results are running 9% below consensus, while official data show industrial profits up 15.7% this year.

4 sources

Geopolitics

Sanctioned Russian gas producer Novatek secretly financed an Alaska LNG project discussed in US-Russia talks, New York Times reports

Polar LNG's former chief executive resigned in September after learning of the Russian money and says he warned Trump administration officials.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Japan's opposition demands Takaichi state the payments and funding in her consumption-tax cut bill

The bill cutting tax on food creates a new support payment for workers without figures in the text, and the government's new 10-year bonds already pay 3.1%, the highest rate in 30 years.

3 sources

Crypto

Bitcoin near $80,000 puts pressure on the preferred-stock funding behind Strategy's purchases

Preferred shares have funded purchases of nearly 136,000 bitcoin, but in early October Strategy spent about nine times as much buying back preferred stock as buying bitcoin.

3 sources

Geopolitics

Ukrainian drones hit Omsk industrial zone 2,500 km from the border, injuring three

A separate drone attack on Belgorod killed one person and injured ten, and Russia's Investigative Committee opened a terrorism case.

4 sources
Corroborated

Tech

Musk says Ukraine broke Starlink's terms by using it for offensive drone strikes

The accusation came hours after Kyiv said satellite connectivity had been restored for fast-moving equipment, ending restrictions that had disrupted Ukrainian drone operations for more than a week.

4 sources
Plausible

Geopolitics

Saudi-led coalition intercepts Houthi ballistic missile over Riyadh days after Aramco empties its headquarters

The coalition said it brought down at least three aerial targets overnight, after recent Houthi attacks on the Shaybah oil field and Dammam's airport killed four people.

4 sources
Corroborated

Geopolitics

Burnham raises Argentina's campaign against the Sea Lion oil project with Trump

Halliburton has declined to work on the field north of the Falkland Islands and operator Navitas has replaced two contractors, as Buenos Aires prepares sanctions on suppliers and financiers.

3 sources
Corroborated