Brent climbs back toward $100 after new Hormuz tanker attacks but heads for a weekly loss of about 12%

What this means

Two forces set the price. Physical supply from the Gulf is restricted and lifts the price after each attack. Demand at around $100 is weak enough that analysts see a surplus, and it pulls the price down whenever diplomacy looks possible. Gulf exporters with pipelines that avoid Hormuz gain from both. Importers with little storage, such as large Asian buyers, carry the risk of a spike. The market already priced a US-Iran de-escalation after the election. The new risk is the reported US option to resume strikes on November 9, which the price does not yet reflect. The consensus "glut" view assumes Hormuz flows recover. If flows stay below 60%, the surplus Goldman and JPMorgan describe does not reach buyers who need Gulf crude grades. In 2019, after the attack on Abqaiq, the rise in Brent prices reversed within weeks because spare capacity covered the loss. Today, the Gulf region's spare production capacity lies behind the same strait that is under attack. The likelier outcome is a range of roughly $90 to $105 in the coming weeks, with price spikes on each attack and declines on each diplomatic signal. That holds unless the United States resumes strikes. Renewed strikes would push the price above that range within days. A verified reopening of Hormuz to normal traffic would push it below that range.