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Morning Edition · Friday, November 6, 2026Published at 4:38 AM EST · New York
Goldman Sachs cuts its year-end gold forecast to $4,150 as Fed officials argue for more rate increases
Spot gold rose about 1.2% to near $4,109 on Thursday as yields fell during the stock sell-off, then lost about 0.6% in Asian trading, while Indian jewelry stocks rose as much as 5% before the Dhanteras festival.
Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 forecast to $4,800 from $5,400. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven cited a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The bank still expects central-bank buying to support prices. It also warned that sharp equity sell-offs can push gold down at first, because investors sell it to raise cash for margin calls.
The market moved in two directions within a day. On Thursday, as the Nasdaq fell and Treasury yields dropped, spot gold traded near $4,109, up about 1.2%, and silver near $52.38, according to Kitco's New York quotes. December rate-increase bets weakened as the stock market fell. In Asian trading on Friday, gold fell about 0.6% to roughly $4,063 even as regional stocks fell. That is the margin-call selling Goldman described. One analyst quoted by Business Standard said inflation and rate-increase worries could send silver back toward $48.
Physical demand in India remains strong. The Economic Times reports that Kalyan Jewellers, Titan and other jewelry stocks rose as much as 5% before Dhanteras, a festival when Indian households traditionally buy gold. Brokerages including Axis Securities and Religare Broking described the recent fall in gold and silver as a buying opportunity.
Goldman's new year-end target is within about 2% of where gold traded this week. The cut mostly brings the forecast into line with current prices. The bank has not turned bearish.
Part of a tracked trend
Renewed Fed Tightening Fears Rattle Global Markets
Over the next 3-6 months stronger US data revives expectations of Fed rate hikes, driving a firmer dollar, equity selloffs in export-heavy markets, and pressure on hard assets as the IMF warns of recurring economic shocks.
What this means
Gold is trading on expected real interest rates. When Fed officials argue for more increases, the cost of holding a metal with no yield rises and gold falls. When an equity sell-off pushes yields down, gold rises, unless forced selling for margin calls comes first. Holders in rupees and other weaker currencies are partly protected, because local-currency gold prices rise when the dollar is firm. The consensus treats the Goldman cut as bearish. The lower forecast still assumes prices near current levels and continued central-bank purchases, the most durable source of demand since Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022. Real rates also set the limit. If US inflation stays above 3.5% while the Fed raises rates slowly, real policy rates stay low, and in the past that has supported gold, as in 2007 and 2008, before the forced selling of late 2008. The likelier outcome is a range between roughly $4,000 and $4,200 over the next few weeks while the December Fed decision is unresolved. That read depends on the jobs data. A strong payroll number and renewed pricing of rate increases would test the bottom of the range. A weak one would test the top.
What to watch
- Today's US employment report. A strong number would revive bets on a December increase and push gold toward Goldman's lower target.
- Central-bank gold purchase data for October. Continued buying by emerging-market central banks would support the price whatever the Fed does.
- Indian gold imports after Dhanteras and the wedding season. Strong physical buying would show festival demand holding up despite high local prices.
Observations to monitor, not financial advice.
Synthesized from: Investing.com · Economic Times · Reuters via TradingView · Kitco
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