Gold Falls Below $4,000 an Ounce as Oil and Strong U.S. Jobs Data Revive Rate Fears

What this means

Gold is falling because higher expected real interest rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no yield, and because leveraged investors sell what they can when equity losses force margin calls. Neither reason weakens the long-run case against central-bank credit expansion. Both reflect positioning and policy expectations. The pattern has precedents. In October 2008 and March 2020, gold fell in the first stage of a liquidity crisis, then rallied once central banks expanded their balance sheets to ease the stress. The consensus treats the drop as proof that the Federal Reserve has regained control of inflation. Brent above $113 suggests otherwise. Today's evidence partly contradicts the desk's earlier view on bitcoin: bitcoin fell together with gold rather than resisting the decline. Investors sold both as sources of cash. The desk's read: gold stays under pressure for the coming weeks while the Fed sounds hawkish and oil stays above $100. The turn comes when equity stress forces a central-bank liquidity response, most likely within months if the tech sell-off deepens. Gold rising on a day when the Nasdaq falls sharply would show that the metal's safe-haven demand has already returned.