Macro · past 7 days
Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India raises its repo rate to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023
The central bank also shifted its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening." The rupee held near 96.4 per dollar after the decision, and traders had largely expected the move.
Macro
Gold steadies near $4,160 after the 30-year Treasury yield touches 5.7%, its highest level since 2002
Gold is still down more than 20% since the US-Iran war began in February. Rising yields and a stronger dollar have outweighed wartime demand for gold as a hedge.
Macro
Argentine forecasters say the economy is already in recession and cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
Analysts in Argentina's central bank survey expect a 1% quarterly contraction in the third quarter and September inflation rising to 1.9%.
Macro
Japan's real wages rise 1.5% in August, an eighth straight gain that keeps another Bank of Japan hike in play
Base salaries grew 3.8%, but government relief that lowers measured inflation accounts for part of the gain. Markets are split on whether the Bank of Japan will move again in October, after its September increase.
Macro
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.34%, the highest since 2002, as the bond sell-off raises borrowing costs for junk-rated companies
The euro fell to a 17-month low on French debt worries, and Banque de France governor Emmanuel Moulin warned that France's annual interest bill could reach €100 billion by 2028 or 2029.
Macro
Bank of Japan prepares to declare that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target
Sources told Reuters the central bank could do so in its October 30 outlook report, one month after it raised its policy rate to a 31-year high, while Nidec's yen bonds fell to the lowest price among more than 3,000 local corporate notes.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Into Brazil's Runoff, and Brazilian Assets Jump Overnight
Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.04% of valid votes to President Lula's 45.15%. A New York-listed fund of Brazilian stocks rose 9% in late trading, and the real gained almost 4% in futures before the October 25 runoff.
Macro
Treasury Yields Hold Near 24-Year Highs After Weak Jobs Data, While the Nikkei Climbs Back Above 70,000
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, and bets on an October Federal Reserve rate increase fell. The 10-year yield remains above 5.1%, but gold has not risen to match.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India Expected to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Inflation Stays Above Target
Nine of 10 economists surveyed by Mint expect a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50% on October 7. A Reuters poll found less agreement, and banks argue that credit growth can absorb the increase.
Macro
Britain's Largest Banks Will Press the Chancellor to Cut Capital Requirements, Treasury Committee Chair Says
Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier argues that London cannot ignore a global move to lower bank capital requirements. Meanwhile, dealmaking is falling, and companies such as Nippon Paint are scaling back acquisitions.
Macro
US payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, pulling Treasury yields off a 24-year high
Traders moved to price in a Federal Reserve pause this month, the Nasdaq Composite closed higher, and gold fell for a second straight week.
Macro
Russia budgets 17.1 trillion roubles for defence in 2027, a 27% increase on earlier plans
The three-year plan commits about 50 trillion roubles to the military and is funded in part by new taxes, including a levy on metals and mining companies.
Macro
Japan's tighter visa rules are pushing foreign business owners out of the country
Capital requirements for the business manager visa rose sixfold to 30 million yen, and nearly 1,000 holders left Japan in the first half of 2026.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.68%, a 24-Year High, Before Retreating
August inflation held at 3.4%, below forecasts, which eased pressure on long-term yields after a selloff driven by stronger growth data, $100 oil and a Federal Reserve that has resumed raising rates.
Macro
Long Bonds Keep Falling Even After United States Inflation Cools
The 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.63%, its highest since 2002, and Japanese government bond yields rose with it as the Bank of Japan signalled more hikes.
Macro
Japan Tightens Residency Rules on the Day Takaichi Promises a Growth Plan
New permanent residency applicants must show above-average household income, conversational Japanese and pension savings equivalent to thirty years of payouts.
Macro
India and the United States Narrow Trade Talks to the Tariff Numbers
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee on the same day Narendra Modi and Donald Trump spoke by telephone.