The Polylog Global Intelligence Brief

Macro · past 7 days

Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.

Macro

Warsh Delivers His First Jackson Hole Speech With US Profits at a Postwar High

Corporate profits rose $400.9 billion in the second quarter, even as the share of business output paid to workers fell, the economic backdrop the new Federal Reserve chair must now address.

2 sources

Macro

Seven French Presidential Candidates Argue Over Debt and Pensions in First Debate

Marine Le Pen used the business-lobby event to present a 125 billion euro cost-cutting plan, eight months before the first round of voting.

1 source
Corroborated

Macro

Bitcoin Falls Below $79,000 as Traders Position for a Federal Reserve Rate Increase

Gold spot held near $4,614 an ounce and silver near $68.73 while the dollar index rose above 99, separating the monetary metals from the liquidity-sensitive digital asset before Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

3 sources

Macro

Washington Restricts Capital, Goods and People at Once as Investors Question the American Overweight

Trump has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Canadian aluminium while conceding the United States needs the metal, and a global pause on immigrant visas is reshaping flows from China and the rest of Asia.

3 sources
Plausible

Macro

Treasury's Expanded Bond Buybacks Work Against Warsh's Inflation Fight

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt to $4 billion per operation, and the 30-year yield returned to 5.247% within a day.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Canada Matches Washington With Tariffs of Up to 50% After Trade Talks Collapse

Ottawa's levies take effect on September 8 and cover goods from aluminium foil and dishwashers to fish.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Japan Plans ¥36.6 Trillion for Debt Service as Bond Yields Climb

The Finance Ministry raised its assumed long-term interest rate to 3.8% from 3.0%, a sharp one-year increase in debt costs.

3 sources

Macro

Traders Price an 80% Chance the Bank of Japan Raises Rates Next Month

The yen trades near 159 to the dollar, and a Bank of Japan rate increase would narrow the interest-rate gap that has drawn capital out of other Asian currencies.

2 sources

Macro

Canada Will Match US Tariffs Dollar for Dollar From September 8

Washington imposed 50% duties on about $20bn of Canadian goods after talks collapsed, while Asia-Pacific governments move the opposite way on services.

2 sources
Corroborated

Macro

War-Driven Fertiliser and Diesel Costs Reach American Farms Before the Midterms

Anhydrous ammonia rose from an average of $828 a ton to $1,123 by mid-April, and living costs are becoming the central question of the November vote.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Treasury's Doubled Buyback Fails to Pull Down Long Yields, and Money Moves to Hard Assets

The 30-year Treasury yield sits near 5.25 percent despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubling long-end repurchases to $4 billion per operation, and Tokyo is increasingly discussed as a partner facing the same bond market pressure.

3 sources

Macro

Washington Names India in a Tariff-Evasion Crackdown as Delhi's Security Adviser Lands in Beijing

A White House report puts India among more than 40 countries accused of routing Chinese goods, days before border talks that both capitals hope will enable Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years.

2 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Canada Sets September 8 Tariffs on US Steel and Electronics After 50 Percent American Levies Take Effect

Talks in Washington collapsed on August 21, and Ottawa says it will match the United States dollar for dollar, putting the continental free trade pact itself in question.

4 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Near Highest Since 2007 as Gold Holds Above 4,500 Dollars and Bitcoin Adds 22 Percent

The Treasury doubled the size of its long-bond buybacks, and investors bought leveraged single-stock funds through a chip selloff even as all three main American indexes lost ground on the week.

4 sources

Macro

Russian Crude Passes Half of India's Oil Imports as Middle East War Reshapes Supply

Indian refiners took about 2.47 million barrels a day from Russia in July, a 62 percent increase on a year earlier, at an average Urals price near 60 dollars a barrel while Brent trades close to 94.

3 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Pakistan Collects Record 15 Billion Rupees at the Khunjerab Pass as Tariffs Redraw Asian Trade Routes

Customs revenue from Chinese imports through the high-altitude crossing rose to 15 billion rupees in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while Indian exporters face American scrutiny over goods routed through third countries.

2 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Treasury's Doubled Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Dated Yields

The 30-year yield returned to about 5.23 percent within a day of the Treasury's move, almost exactly where it stood a week earlier, while investors read the operation as a liquidity signal and bought gold and bitcoin instead.

3 sources

Macro

United States Imposes 50 Percent Tariffs on 20 Billion Dollars of Canadian Goods

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would match the tariffs dollar for dollar after Washington changed the terms in the final hours of a three-day extension.

4 sources
Corroborated

Macro

Japan Raises Its Budget Interest Assumption to 3.8 Percent, Highest Since 1998

The Finance Ministry's debt-servicing request for fiscal 2027 rises to about 36.6 trillion yen, constraining the expansionary spending plans of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

3 sources

Macro

India's Entry to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Stalls on Market Access

Analysts put the potential foreign inflow at 15 billion to 25 billion dollars, held up by operational rules rather than by any doubt about India's credit.

3 sources

Macro

Treasury's Bigger Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Term Yields

The ten-year yield climbed back to 4.71% on Thursday, one day after Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt, and Japan is heading into the same test with a sharply higher budget request.

2 sources