Macro · past 14 days
Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.
Macro
Dollar holds near its highest level in a year and a half before US inflation data forecast to show a 3.6% annual rise
Wednesday's consumer price report is one of the last major data releases before the Federal Reserve meets on October 28, and higher oil prices have pushed up the forecast for headline inflation.
Macro
IMF opens its Bangkok meetings warning that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, warned that "winter is coming," as interest payments already take more than a tenth of revenue in the average developing country and the Iran war's energy shock leads the agenda.
Macro
Argentina's Caputo seeks about $1 billion from the IMF in Bangkok as Indonesia courts Vaca Muerta energy
The IMF wants Argentina's recovery to spread beyond farming, mining and energy, while app-based self-employment has grown by up to 30% in a year with unemployment at 7.9%.
Macro
US Long-Term Yields Stay Near Two-Decade Highs as Pre-Election Spending Adds to Fiscal Worries
The 30-year Treasury yield ended Friday at about 5.60%, and finance ministers gathering in Bangkok this week face elevated public debt and oil above $100 a barrel.
Macro
Indian Economists Expect the Reserve Bank to Raise Rates by Up to a Full Percentage Point as Oil Keeps Inflation Up
SBI Capital Markets says a larger move in December cannot be ruled out, after the Reserve Bank of India, which had last raised rates in 2023, lifted the repo rate to 5.50%.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro Pledges Only Inflation-Linked Minimum Wage Rises Before Brazil's Oct. 25 Runoff
Investors treat the senator as the more fiscally restrictive candidate after he finished ahead of President Lula in the first round, and the two are in a close race.
Macro
Argentina Has Approved More Than $56 Billion in Projects Under Its Investment Incentive Regime, Yet Investment Keeps Falling
Capital formation has declined since early 2025, and economist Alberto Ades, who once backed the government's course, says the peso is too strong.
Macro
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Ends Week at 5.24% as Bessent Skips the IMF and World Bank Meetings in Bangkok
Gold rose 1.3% and silver 2.2% on Friday as yields eased slightly, though both metals are still down over the past month while the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 5.24% and the 30-year near 5.63%.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India Tightens Currency Derivative Rules Days After Its First Rate Increase Since 2023
Companies can now trade rupee derivatives without proving an underlying exposure only up to $5 million, down from $100 million, and they cannot rebook cancelled contracts.
Macro
Citi Says French Fiscal Risks Could Make the European Central Bank Stop Raising Rates After December
Belgian police clashed with about 30,000 people who marched in Brussels against spending cuts, which shows how hard it is for euro-zone governments to reduce deficits.
Macro
Bank of Thailand tightens checks on foreign-currency and gold inflows as Singapore prepares another tightening
Thailand is using paperwork rules to slow a gold-driven rise in the baht, while China's central bank says it will keep letting the market decide the yuan's exchange rate.
Macro
ECB minutes show September hike was driven by an energy shock now expected to last into 2027
Policymakers judged that headline inflation would stay well above target into the first half of 2027, but officials speaking on Thursday played down a near-term follow-up move.
Macro
Japanese household spending falls again as Takaichi pushes a two-year cut to the consumption tax on food
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the upper house that local governments' lost revenue would be fully compensated, and she has pledged to fund the cut without issuing new government bonds.
Macro
Lula adopts a fiscal-discipline message for Brazil's October 25 runoff as polls show a tie with Flávio Bolsonaro
The president will argue that a fourth term would allow interest rates to fall, while his rival proposes a constitutional overhaul of the courts, and a federal judge has let one betting operator keep working despite Lula's ban.
Macro
Fed minutes show unanimous backing for September rate hike and a majority leaning toward another by year end
Gold rose 0.4% in Asian trading after touching a two-month low, and State Bank of India economists urged the Reserve Bank of India to raise rates by half a percentage point.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro's team studies spending curbs worth up to 250 billion reais as investors bet on a runoff win
Brazil's main stock index jumped 7.70% in a single day, and the real strengthened 4.6%, after he led the first round with 47.03% of the vote.
Macro
More Russians now pick cash over bank deposits for savings as cross-border transfers draw tougher penalties
A Latvian court sentenced an activist to six years in prison for sending 43 euros to Russia, and the speaker of Russia's lower house called moving money abroad an aggravating factor in crime.
Macro
Trump promises $5,000 to every adult if Republicans hold Congress, a pledge that would cost more than $1 trillion
The offer requires congressional approval and would add to a federal deficit of nearly $1.8 trillion, while protesters interrupted Trump's Texas rally for Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India raises its repo rate to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023
The central bank also shifted its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening." The rupee held near 96.4 per dollar after the decision, and traders had largely expected the move.
Macro
Gold steadies near $4,160 after the 30-year Treasury yield touches 5.7%, its highest level since 2002
Gold is still down more than 20% since the US-Iran war began in February. Rising yields and a stronger dollar have outweighed wartime demand for gold as a hedge.
Macro
Argentine forecasters say the economy is already in recession and cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
Analysts in Argentina's central bank survey expect a 1% quarterly contraction in the third quarter and September inflation rising to 1.9%.
Macro
Japan's real wages rise 1.5% in August, an eighth straight gain that keeps another Bank of Japan hike in play
Base salaries grew 3.8%, but government relief that lowers measured inflation accounts for part of the gain. Markets are split on whether the Bank of Japan will move again in October, after its September increase.
Macro
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.34%, the highest since 2002, as the bond sell-off raises borrowing costs for junk-rated companies
The euro fell to a 17-month low on French debt worries, and Banque de France governor Emmanuel Moulin warned that France's annual interest bill could reach €100 billion by 2028 or 2029.
Macro
Bank of Japan prepares to declare that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target
Sources told Reuters the central bank could do so in its October 30 outlook report, one month after it raised its policy rate to a 31-year high, while Nidec's yen bonds fell to the lowest price among more than 3,000 local corporate notes.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Into Brazil's Runoff, and Brazilian Assets Jump Overnight
Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.04% of valid votes to President Lula's 45.15%. A New York-listed fund of Brazilian stocks rose 9% in late trading, and the real gained almost 4% in futures before the October 25 runoff.
Macro
Treasury Yields Hold Near 24-Year Highs After Weak Jobs Data, While the Nikkei Climbs Back Above 70,000
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, and bets on an October Federal Reserve rate increase fell. The 10-year yield remains above 5.1%, but gold has not risen to match.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India Expected to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Inflation Stays Above Target
Nine of 10 economists surveyed by Mint expect a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50% on October 7. A Reuters poll found less agreement, and banks argue that credit growth can absorb the increase.
Macro
Britain's Largest Banks Will Press the Chancellor to Cut Capital Requirements, Treasury Committee Chair Says
Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier argues that London cannot ignore a global move to lower bank capital requirements. Meanwhile, dealmaking is falling, and companies such as Nippon Paint are scaling back acquisitions.
Macro
US payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, pulling Treasury yields off a 24-year high
Traders moved to price in a Federal Reserve pause this month, the Nasdaq Composite closed higher, and gold fell for a second straight week.
Macro
Russia budgets 17.1 trillion roubles for defence in 2027, a 27% increase on earlier plans
The three-year plan commits about 50 trillion roubles to the military and is funded in part by new taxes, including a levy on metals and mining companies.
Macro
Japan's tighter visa rules are pushing foreign business owners out of the country
Capital requirements for the business manager visa rose sixfold to 30 million yen, and nearly 1,000 holders left Japan in the first half of 2026.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.68%, a 24-Year High, Before Retreating
August inflation held at 3.4%, below forecasts, which eased pressure on long-term yields after a selloff driven by stronger growth data, $100 oil and a Federal Reserve that has resumed raising rates.
Macro
Long Bonds Keep Falling Even After United States Inflation Cools
The 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.63%, its highest since 2002, and Japanese government bond yields rose with it as the Bank of Japan signalled more hikes.
Macro
Japan Tightens Residency Rules on the Day Takaichi Promises a Growth Plan
New permanent residency applicants must show above-average household income, conversational Japanese and pension savings equivalent to thirty years of payouts.
Macro
India and the United States Narrow Trade Talks to the Tariff Numbers
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee on the same day Narendra Modi and Donald Trump spoke by telephone.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Reaches Highest Level Since 2002 as Traders Halve the Odds of an October Fed Hike
Long-dated borrowing costs rose even as New York Fed President John Williams cooled expectations for another increase, while gold held near $4,150 an ounce and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,349.92.
Macro
Vanguard Says France Is Degrading Its Credit as Borrowing Costs Climb and Public Workers Strike
The gap between French and German ten-year yields stood at 111.2 basis points on Tuesday, with Paris due to present a 2027 budget built on 54 billion euros of savings on October 1.
Macro
Japan's Industrial Output Falls 1.7% in August as a Kyushu Earthquake and the Iran War Hit Factories
Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase, and the decline came in autos, machinery and petroleum while foreign investors kept buying Japanese property.
Macro
Oil Near $107 Pushes US Yields to a 19-Year High Before Wednesday's Inflation Report
The relationship between crude oil prices and Treasury borrowing costs is the closest it has been since 1990, according to the Financial Times, and traders have increased bets that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates again.
Macro
Germany and Five Other Capitals Demand Hundreds of Billions in Cuts to the EU Budget
Berlin rejects additional joint borrowing to close the funding gap in a proposed 2 trillion euro budget framework that Brussels wants agreed by the end of the year.
Macro
Washington and Beijing Publish Terms of Matched Tariff Cuts on $30 Billion of Goods Each Way
China's Ministry of Commerce says more than 90% of the listed products will lose all retaliatory tariffs and revert to most-favored-nation treatment once both governments complete their domestic procedures.
Macro
Warsh's Rate Increase Draws Political Fire as Jobs and Inflation Data Land This Week
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%-4% on a unanimous vote, and 16 of 18 officials expect another increase before year-end.
Macro
Japan Weighs Defence Spending at 3.5% of Output as Long Bond Yields Sit at Multi-Decade Highs
A government adviser says the increase would be spread across a decade or more and should not unsettle markets in any single year.