Macro · past 14 days
Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.
Macro
Warsh Delivers His First Jackson Hole Speech With US Profits at a Postwar High
Corporate profits rose $400.9 billion in the second quarter, even as the share of business output paid to workers fell, the economic backdrop the new Federal Reserve chair must now address.
Macro
Seven French Presidential Candidates Argue Over Debt and Pensions in First Debate
Marine Le Pen used the business-lobby event to present a 125 billion euro cost-cutting plan, eight months before the first round of voting.
Macro
Bitcoin Falls Below $79,000 as Traders Position for a Federal Reserve Rate Increase
Gold spot held near $4,614 an ounce and silver near $68.73 while the dollar index rose above 99, separating the monetary metals from the liquidity-sensitive digital asset before Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Macro
Washington Restricts Capital, Goods and People at Once as Investors Question the American Overweight
Trump has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Canadian aluminium while conceding the United States needs the metal, and a global pause on immigrant visas is reshaping flows from China and the rest of Asia.
Macro
Treasury's Expanded Bond Buybacks Work Against Warsh's Inflation Fight
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt to $4 billion per operation, and the 30-year yield returned to 5.247% within a day.
Macro
Canada Matches Washington With Tariffs of Up to 50% After Trade Talks Collapse
Ottawa's levies take effect on September 8 and cover goods from aluminium foil and dishwashers to fish.
Macro
Japan Plans ¥36.6 Trillion for Debt Service as Bond Yields Climb
The Finance Ministry raised its assumed long-term interest rate to 3.8% from 3.0%, a sharp one-year increase in debt costs.
Macro
Traders Price an 80% Chance the Bank of Japan Raises Rates Next Month
The yen trades near 159 to the dollar, and a Bank of Japan rate increase would narrow the interest-rate gap that has drawn capital out of other Asian currencies.
Macro
Canada Will Match US Tariffs Dollar for Dollar From September 8
Washington imposed 50% duties on about $20bn of Canadian goods after talks collapsed, while Asia-Pacific governments move the opposite way on services.
Macro
War-Driven Fertiliser and Diesel Costs Reach American Farms Before the Midterms
Anhydrous ammonia rose from an average of $828 a ton to $1,123 by mid-April, and living costs are becoming the central question of the November vote.
Macro
Treasury's Doubled Buyback Fails to Pull Down Long Yields, and Money Moves to Hard Assets
The 30-year Treasury yield sits near 5.25 percent despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubling long-end repurchases to $4 billion per operation, and Tokyo is increasingly discussed as a partner facing the same bond market pressure.
Macro
Washington Names India in a Tariff-Evasion Crackdown as Delhi's Security Adviser Lands in Beijing
A White House report puts India among more than 40 countries accused of routing Chinese goods, days before border talks that both capitals hope will enable Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years.
Macro
Canada Sets September 8 Tariffs on US Steel and Electronics After 50 Percent American Levies Take Effect
Talks in Washington collapsed on August 21, and Ottawa says it will match the United States dollar for dollar, putting the continental free trade pact itself in question.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Near Highest Since 2007 as Gold Holds Above 4,500 Dollars and Bitcoin Adds 22 Percent
The Treasury doubled the size of its long-bond buybacks, and investors bought leveraged single-stock funds through a chip selloff even as all three main American indexes lost ground on the week.
Macro
Russian Crude Passes Half of India's Oil Imports as Middle East War Reshapes Supply
Indian refiners took about 2.47 million barrels a day from Russia in July, a 62 percent increase on a year earlier, at an average Urals price near 60 dollars a barrel while Brent trades close to 94.
Macro
Pakistan Collects Record 15 Billion Rupees at the Khunjerab Pass as Tariffs Redraw Asian Trade Routes
Customs revenue from Chinese imports through the high-altitude crossing rose to 15 billion rupees in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while Indian exporters face American scrutiny over goods routed through third countries.
Macro
Treasury's Doubled Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Dated Yields
The 30-year yield returned to about 5.23 percent within a day of the Treasury's move, almost exactly where it stood a week earlier, while investors read the operation as a liquidity signal and bought gold and bitcoin instead.
Macro
United States Imposes 50 Percent Tariffs on 20 Billion Dollars of Canadian Goods
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would match the tariffs dollar for dollar after Washington changed the terms in the final hours of a three-day extension.
Macro
Japan Raises Its Budget Interest Assumption to 3.8 Percent, Highest Since 1998
The Finance Ministry's debt-servicing request for fiscal 2027 rises to about 36.6 trillion yen, constraining the expansionary spending plans of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Macro
India's Entry to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Stalls on Market Access
Analysts put the potential foreign inflow at 15 billion to 25 billion dollars, held up by operational rules rather than by any doubt about India's credit.
Macro
Treasury's Bigger Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Term Yields
The ten-year yield climbed back to 4.71% on Thursday, one day after Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt, and Japan is heading into the same test with a sharply higher budget request.
Macro
Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks Days After Federal Debt Passes $40 Trillion
Scott Bessent lifted the maximum size of each long-dated repurchase operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the 30-year yield fell back from 5.34%.
Macro
Japan's Exports Rise 23.2% on Chip Equipment and Cars, but Volumes Grow Only 5.2%
Semiconductor equipment shipments jumped 49.1% by value while the yen remained weak against the dollar, meaning price rather than output produced most of the headline gain.
Macro
Walmart Reports Quarterly Results With Wall Street Expecting Revenue Near $187 Billion
Walmart reported adjusted earnings of 81 cents a share on revenue of $187.9 billion, beating estimates on both counts, but shares fell about 5% in premarket trading as investors weighed how much of the profit gain came from a one-time tariff refund.
Macro
Trump Pauses 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods for Three Days and Raises Keystone XL
The reprieve covers roughly $20 billion of imports including vehicles, dairy and liquor, and Trump said the contested pipeline "may be awoken from the grave."
Macro
BRICS States Condemn the European Union's Carbon Border Tax as a Trade Barrier
Environment ministers from the bloc called the mechanism protectionist and demanded a large increase in adaptation finance for developing countries.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.31 Percent, Highest Since 2007, as Oil Climbs
The S&P 500 closed 0.52 percent lower at 7,745.06 while gold held near $4,388 an ounce, still well below its January peak.
Macro
Trump's 50 Percent Tariffs on $20 Billion of Canadian Goods Take Effect in First Use of Section 338
The duties apply even to goods that qualify for free treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will hold its retaliation back while talks continue.
Macro
Airlines Hold Fare Increases in Place Even as Jet Fuel Costs Ease
Israel's agriculture ministry reversed a poultry import approval six months after granting it, and average wages there rose 7 percent without households noticing the difference.
Macro
Gold Trades Near $4,390 an Ounce as Central Banks Add 289 Tonnes Through a Falling Quarter
Official-sector purchases rose 62 percent from a year earlier even as the metal sat far below its January peak of $5,589, a divergence between price and reserve policy.
Macro
Portugal and Spain Lead Europe's Housing Shortage as Tel Aviv Apartment Prices Pass 5 Million Shekels
Spain's accumulated deficit exceeds 730,000 homes while Portuguese construction costs rose 6.9 percent in May, and Israeli data shows prices in Tel Aviv separating from its neighbouring cities.
Macro
Gold Holds Near 4,400 Dollars as United States Inflation Slows to 3.4 Percent
Silver traded above 65 dollars an ounce and futures markets still assign roughly two-in-five odds to a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.
Macro
The Yen Slides Back Toward 160 as Traders Test Tokyo's Willingness to Intervene Again
Japan's currency has given back about half the gains from the joint United States and Japanese intervention of late July, ending the week down roughly 1 per cent.
Macro
White House says tariff evasion costs it up to $26 billion a year as Brazil opens a retaliation process
Trade adviser Peter Navarro named more than 40 countries as channels for Chinese goods, and Brazil's government began proceedings under its reciprocity law without committing to counter-tariffs.
Macro
Carry traders rebuild yen short positions weeks after the coordinated intervention
The yen has reversed roughly half the gains from the July intervention, and Japanese utilities are turning to power futures to hedge fuel costs that a weak currency makes worse.
Macro
Hong Kong will list the first Shanghai free-trade zone bond as China builds financial channels outside the dollar
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing announced the listing on Thursday to defend its position as the main offshore yuan centre against competition from the mainland.
Macro
Trump imposes tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and their components
The top rate applies to aircraft above 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging, while allied producers in the European Union, Japan and South Korea face 15%.