Macro · past 30 days
Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.
Macro
Dollar holds near its highest level in a year and a half before US inflation data forecast to show a 3.6% annual rise
Wednesday's consumer price report is one of the last major data releases before the Federal Reserve meets on October 28, and higher oil prices have pushed up the forecast for headline inflation.
Macro
IMF opens its Bangkok meetings warning that global public debt will exceed 100% of output before 2030
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, warned that "winter is coming," as interest payments already take more than a tenth of revenue in the average developing country and the Iran war's energy shock leads the agenda.
Macro
Argentina's Caputo seeks about $1 billion from the IMF in Bangkok as Indonesia courts Vaca Muerta energy
The IMF wants Argentina's recovery to spread beyond farming, mining and energy, while app-based self-employment has grown by up to 30% in a year with unemployment at 7.9%.
Macro
US Long-Term Yields Stay Near Two-Decade Highs as Pre-Election Spending Adds to Fiscal Worries
The 30-year Treasury yield ended Friday at about 5.60%, and finance ministers gathering in Bangkok this week face elevated public debt and oil above $100 a barrel.
Macro
Indian Economists Expect the Reserve Bank to Raise Rates by Up to a Full Percentage Point as Oil Keeps Inflation Up
SBI Capital Markets says a larger move in December cannot be ruled out, after the Reserve Bank of India, which had last raised rates in 2023, lifted the repo rate to 5.50%.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro Pledges Only Inflation-Linked Minimum Wage Rises Before Brazil's Oct. 25 Runoff
Investors treat the senator as the more fiscally restrictive candidate after he finished ahead of President Lula in the first round, and the two are in a close race.
Macro
Argentina Has Approved More Than $56 Billion in Projects Under Its Investment Incentive Regime, Yet Investment Keeps Falling
Capital formation has declined since early 2025, and economist Alberto Ades, who once backed the government's course, says the peso is too strong.
Macro
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Ends Week at 5.24% as Bessent Skips the IMF and World Bank Meetings in Bangkok
Gold rose 1.3% and silver 2.2% on Friday as yields eased slightly, though both metals are still down over the past month while the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 5.24% and the 30-year near 5.63%.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India Tightens Currency Derivative Rules Days After Its First Rate Increase Since 2023
Companies can now trade rupee derivatives without proving an underlying exposure only up to $5 million, down from $100 million, and they cannot rebook cancelled contracts.
Macro
Citi Says French Fiscal Risks Could Make the European Central Bank Stop Raising Rates After December
Belgian police clashed with about 30,000 people who marched in Brussels against spending cuts, which shows how hard it is for euro-zone governments to reduce deficits.
Macro
Bank of Thailand tightens checks on foreign-currency and gold inflows as Singapore prepares another tightening
Thailand is using paperwork rules to slow a gold-driven rise in the baht, while China's central bank says it will keep letting the market decide the yuan's exchange rate.
Macro
ECB minutes show September hike was driven by an energy shock now expected to last into 2027
Policymakers judged that headline inflation would stay well above target into the first half of 2027, but officials speaking on Thursday played down a near-term follow-up move.
Macro
Japanese household spending falls again as Takaichi pushes a two-year cut to the consumption tax on food
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told the upper house that local governments' lost revenue would be fully compensated, and she has pledged to fund the cut without issuing new government bonds.
Macro
Lula adopts a fiscal-discipline message for Brazil's October 25 runoff as polls show a tie with Flávio Bolsonaro
The president will argue that a fourth term would allow interest rates to fall, while his rival proposes a constitutional overhaul of the courts, and a federal judge has let one betting operator keep working despite Lula's ban.
Macro
Fed minutes show unanimous backing for September rate hike and a majority leaning toward another by year end
Gold rose 0.4% in Asian trading after touching a two-month low, and State Bank of India economists urged the Reserve Bank of India to raise rates by half a percentage point.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro's team studies spending curbs worth up to 250 billion reais as investors bet on a runoff win
Brazil's main stock index jumped 7.70% in a single day, and the real strengthened 4.6%, after he led the first round with 47.03% of the vote.
Macro
More Russians now pick cash over bank deposits for savings as cross-border transfers draw tougher penalties
A Latvian court sentenced an activist to six years in prison for sending 43 euros to Russia, and the speaker of Russia's lower house called moving money abroad an aggravating factor in crime.
Macro
Trump promises $5,000 to every adult if Republicans hold Congress, a pledge that would cost more than $1 trillion
The offer requires congressional approval and would add to a federal deficit of nearly $1.8 trillion, while protesters interrupted Trump's Texas rally for Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India raises its repo rate to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023
The central bank also shifted its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening." The rupee held near 96.4 per dollar after the decision, and traders had largely expected the move.
Macro
Gold steadies near $4,160 after the 30-year Treasury yield touches 5.7%, its highest level since 2002
Gold is still down more than 20% since the US-Iran war began in February. Rising yields and a stronger dollar have outweighed wartime demand for gold as a hedge.
Macro
Argentine forecasters say the economy is already in recession and cut their 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
Analysts in Argentina's central bank survey expect a 1% quarterly contraction in the third quarter and September inflation rising to 1.9%.
Macro
Japan's real wages rise 1.5% in August, an eighth straight gain that keeps another Bank of Japan hike in play
Base salaries grew 3.8%, but government relief that lowers measured inflation accounts for part of the gain. Markets are split on whether the Bank of Japan will move again in October, after its September increase.
Macro
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.34%, the highest since 2002, as the bond sell-off raises borrowing costs for junk-rated companies
The euro fell to a 17-month low on French debt worries, and Banque de France governor Emmanuel Moulin warned that France's annual interest bill could reach €100 billion by 2028 or 2029.
Macro
Bank of Japan prepares to declare that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target
Sources told Reuters the central bank could do so in its October 30 outlook report, one month after it raised its policy rate to a 31-year high, while Nidec's yen bonds fell to the lowest price among more than 3,000 local corporate notes.
Macro
Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Into Brazil's Runoff, and Brazilian Assets Jump Overnight
Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.04% of valid votes to President Lula's 45.15%. A New York-listed fund of Brazilian stocks rose 9% in late trading, and the real gained almost 4% in futures before the October 25 runoff.
Macro
Treasury Yields Hold Near 24-Year Highs After Weak Jobs Data, While the Nikkei Climbs Back Above 70,000
US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, and bets on an October Federal Reserve rate increase fell. The 10-year yield remains above 5.1%, but gold has not risen to match.
Macro
Reserve Bank of India Expected to Raise Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Inflation Stays Above Target
Nine of 10 economists surveyed by Mint expect a 25-basis-point increase to 5.50% on October 7. A Reuters poll found less agreement, and banks argue that credit growth can absorb the increase.
Macro
Britain's Largest Banks Will Press the Chancellor to Cut Capital Requirements, Treasury Committee Chair Says
Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier argues that London cannot ignore a global move to lower bank capital requirements. Meanwhile, dealmaking is falling, and companies such as Nippon Paint are scaling back acquisitions.
Macro
US payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, pulling Treasury yields off a 24-year high
Traders moved to price in a Federal Reserve pause this month, the Nasdaq Composite closed higher, and gold fell for a second straight week.
Macro
Russia budgets 17.1 trillion roubles for defence in 2027, a 27% increase on earlier plans
The three-year plan commits about 50 trillion roubles to the military and is funded in part by new taxes, including a levy on metals and mining companies.
Macro
Japan's tighter visa rules are pushing foreign business owners out of the country
Capital requirements for the business manager visa rose sixfold to 30 million yen, and nearly 1,000 holders left Japan in the first half of 2026.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.68%, a 24-Year High, Before Retreating
August inflation held at 3.4%, below forecasts, which eased pressure on long-term yields after a selloff driven by stronger growth data, $100 oil and a Federal Reserve that has resumed raising rates.
Macro
Long Bonds Keep Falling Even After United States Inflation Cools
The 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.63%, its highest since 2002, and Japanese government bond yields rose with it as the Bank of Japan signalled more hikes.
Macro
Japan Tightens Residency Rules on the Day Takaichi Promises a Growth Plan
New permanent residency applicants must show above-average household income, conversational Japanese and pension savings equivalent to thirty years of payouts.
Macro
India and the United States Narrow Trade Talks to the Tariff Numbers
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met Jamieson Greer in Milwaukee on the same day Narendra Modi and Donald Trump spoke by telephone.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Reaches Highest Level Since 2002 as Traders Halve the Odds of an October Fed Hike
Long-dated borrowing costs rose even as New York Fed President John Williams cooled expectations for another increase, while gold held near $4,150 an ounce and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,349.92.
Macro
Vanguard Says France Is Degrading Its Credit as Borrowing Costs Climb and Public Workers Strike
The gap between French and German ten-year yields stood at 111.2 basis points on Tuesday, with Paris due to present a 2027 budget built on 54 billion euros of savings on October 1.
Macro
Japan's Industrial Output Falls 1.7% in August as a Kyushu Earthquake and the Iran War Hit Factories
Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase, and the decline came in autos, machinery and petroleum while foreign investors kept buying Japanese property.
Macro
Oil Near $107 Pushes US Yields to a 19-Year High Before Wednesday's Inflation Report
The relationship between crude oil prices and Treasury borrowing costs is the closest it has been since 1990, according to the Financial Times, and traders have increased bets that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates again.
Macro
Germany and Five Other Capitals Demand Hundreds of Billions in Cuts to the EU Budget
Berlin rejects additional joint borrowing to close the funding gap in a proposed 2 trillion euro budget framework that Brussels wants agreed by the end of the year.
Macro
Washington and Beijing Publish Terms of Matched Tariff Cuts on $30 Billion of Goods Each Way
China's Ministry of Commerce says more than 90% of the listed products will lose all retaliatory tariffs and revert to most-favored-nation treatment once both governments complete their domestic procedures.
Macro
Warsh's Rate Increase Draws Political Fire as Jobs and Inflation Data Land This Week
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%-4% on a unanimous vote, and 16 of 18 officials expect another increase before year-end.
Macro
Japan Weighs Defence Spending at 3.5% of Output as Long Bond Yields Sit at Multi-Decade Highs
A government adviser says the increase would be spread across a decade or more and should not unsettle markets in any single year.
Macro
Long-Dated Treasury Yields Reach Multi-Decade Highs as Equities Still Close the Week Up
The 30-year yield touched 5.502 percent, while Bank of America flagged the combination of bond volatility and weak financial shares as a precursor to an investor retreat from risk.
Macro
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Ends the Week at 5.18% Despite Cheaper Oil
Falling crude gave bonds only partial relief after a three-session sell-off pushed the benchmark yield up about 23 basis points, with consumer sentiment down to 48.1.
Macro
Japan Overtakes the United States as India's Largest Source of Foreign Direct Investment
Equity inflows rose 6% to $19.81 billion in the first quarter while American investment fell to $1.34 billion, and New Delhi opened trade talks with Chile alongside a copper supply deal.
Macro
US 30-Year Yield Reaches Highest Level Since 2004 as the Global Bond Selloff Widens
The 10-year Treasury note traded near 5.17% and Japan's 10-year yield hit 3.06%, yet volatility in equities and bitcoin stayed close to its lows for the year.
Macro
Japan Says Trump Raised the Weak Yen, and the Dollar Fell Toward 158
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also said Prime Minister Takaichi treats the yen's undervaluation as a problem, the clearest official language yet from a government elected on growth.
Macro
Treasury Yields Return to 2007 Levels as Traders Price a Fed Hike in October
A flash business survey showing the fastest United States expansion since 2021, input costs rising at the quickest pace in four years and a weak five-year note auction pushed borrowing costs higher across the curve.
Macro
Emerging Market Borrowers Keep Selling Foreign-Currency Debt Through the Iran War
Rising interest rates, a strong dollar and an active regional conflict have not reduced investor demand for the bonds.
Macro
Tokyo Used Apartment Prices Fall for the First Time in More Than Two Years
Declines that began in central wards have spread as Bank of Japan rate increases raise mortgage costs.
Macro
OECD Puts 2026 Global Growth at 2.9% and Credits AI Spending for Absorbing the Energy Shock
The forecast arrives a week after the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate, and the OECD names higher sovereign bond yields and weak returns on artificial-intelligence investment as the main risks to its own numbers.
Macro
US Secondary Sanctions on Iranian Airlines Take Effect, With Dollar Access as the Enforcement Tool
Turkey, Iraq, Oman and Azerbaijan have suspended flights to and from Iran, while Russia and China say their aviation links with Tehran remain lawful and will continue.
Macro
France says public debt will reach its highest level since 1978 as Lecornu prepares 54 billion euros of cuts
The finance ministry projects debt at 119.3 percent of output this year and 121.7 percent in 2027, while Brazil enters its October election with an unacknowledged adjustment of its own.
Macro
Saudi Arabia leaves China's mBridge payments project, slowing the plumbing side of dedollarization
The kingdom's central bank finished its trial and withdrew, removing the world's largest oil exporter from the most advanced attempt to settle cross-border trade outside the dollar system.
Macro
Russia's air campaign turns to Ukraine's tax base, costing Kyiv more than $1.5bn in revenue
Strikes on warehouses, steel plants, ports and railways have moved the war from the power grid to the commercial economy, while Kyiv's privatisation programme expects to raise about $45m.
Macro
Pakistan moves another fuel cost onto households as Iran orders banks to fund provincial projects
Electricity users face a proposed increase of 1.73 rupees a unit, while Iranian officials direct 17,000 billion toman of credit to enterprises in one province alone.
Macro
Two-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 4.74% as Warsh Fed Signals Another Increase
Sixteen of eighteen Federal Reserve officials now project at least one more quarter-point increase this year, and short-dated debt is repricing faster than equities.
Macro
Yen Weakens Past 157 Per Dollar Even After the Bank of Japan Raises Rates to 1.25%
Two dissenting votes from board members appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi convinced traders the tightening path will be slower than the decision implied.
Macro
US and Chinese Ministers Meet in New York on Sunday to Prepare a Leaders' Summit
Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for five days of talks as Taiwan sends its first cabinet-level official to the mainland under the Lai administration.
Macro
Bolivia Ends Diesel Subsidies Hours After Congress Approves a $1.9 Billion IMF Programme
President Rodrigo Paz acted the same day the Senate ratified the three-year loan, and the country's main labour federation has threatened renewed protests.
Macro
Bank of Japan lifts its policy rate to 1.25 percent, the highest since 1993
The increase comes two days after the Federal Reserve's own rate increase, and Japan's ten-year government bond yield has already climbed above 3 percent.
Macro
Venezuela nears agreement to move $4 billion of gold reserves to New York
Roughly 31 tonnes held at the Bank of England would pass to United States Treasury management with outside audits, giving the interim government in Caracas access to cash.
Macro
American inflation runs at 3.4 percent with petrol up 27 percent as the Fed tightens into an energy shock
Gasoline averaged $4.19 a gallon in August, and lower-income households are absorbing both higher fuel bills and higher borrowing costs before November's midterm elections.
Macro
Warsh's Fed Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023 and Signals Another Increase
The unanimous quarter-point move to a 3.75 to 4 percent target range pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 631 points, and Goldman Sachs immediately moved its call to an October hike.
Macro
Takaichi Reshuffles Her Cabinet Hours Before the Bank of Japan Decides on Rates
The prime minister kept her senior economic ministers in place and brought a Japan Innovation Party member into the Cabinet for the first time, as the central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25 percent.
Macro
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Touches 5.04% Hours Before the Federal Reserve Decides on Rates
Futures markets price the probability of a quarter-point rate increase at roughly 92 percent, and a survey of academic economists says the Federal Reserve should raise rates even as President Donald Trump demands the opposite.
Macro
Hong Kong Says It May Buy Gold With Its Exchange Fund as It Publishes a First Five-Year Plan
Chief Executive John Lee raised the prospect on the same day gold traded near 4,263 dollars an ounce, a six-week low according to USAGOLD, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Macro
US 10-Year Yield Touches 5 Percent as Bond Selling Spreads to Japan and Europe
Futures markets price a 92 percent chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at the meeting that begins Tuesday, a move it has not made since 2023.
Macro
China's Investment Decline Deepens to 7.2 Percent as August Retail Sales Miss Forecasts
Factory output beat expectations with 5.2 percent growth, leaving Beijing with strong production and weak domestic demand at the same time.
Macro
Berlin Seeks Guarantees on Jobs as UniCredit Approaches Control of Commerzbank
The Italian bank has built a holding of nearly 50 percent, leaving the German state's roughly 12 percent stake and its board seats as its remaining sources of influence.
Macro
Fed Chair Warsh Heads Into a Rate Decision That Puts Him Against Trump
Interest-rate futures price roughly a 60 percent chance of a quarter-point increase on September 16, with oil near $108 a barrel feeding the inflation case.
Macro
BRICS Agrees to Settle More Trade in Its Own Currencies and Link Payment Systems
The New Delhi declaration stops short of a common currency, while Xi Jinping offers an open-source artificial-intelligence zone for the bloc.
Macro
Bank of Japan Approaches a Rate Decision Squeezed Between Tokyo and Washington
Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled a move at the September 17-18 meeting after the yen touched 155.28 to the dollar on intervention and rate-rise expectations.
Macro
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Near 1998 Levels Before the October 28 Budget
The 30-year gilt yield has traded around 5.89 percent, leaving Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey roughly £13 billion of room against his fiscal rules.
Macro
Warsh's Fed Meets This Week With a Rate Increase Priced at Roughly Two in Three
The European Central Bank has already raised its deposit rate to 2.5 percent, and swaps price a near-certain Bank of Japan increase on Thursday, leaving three of the largest central banks tightening at once.
Macro
US Inflation Reached 3.4% in August, Pushing the Federal Reserve Toward a Rate Increase on Wednesday
Gasoline prices rose 3.9 percent in the month and accounted for more than a third of the total increase, turning the Gulf conflict into an American price problem.
Macro
BRICS Leaders Open a New Delhi Summit With Iran Present and Dollar Settlement on the Agenda
The summit concluded with the New Delhi Declaration adopted by consensus, papering over friction between Iran and other members over the Gulf war, while the bloc's formal language on payment alternatives stayed far more cautious than the dollar-dominance rhetoric coming from Moscow and Tehran.
Macro
The Bank of Japan Prepares to Raise Its Policy Rate to 1.25%, the Highest Level Since 1995
The increase would come only three months after the June move, the fastest sequence since Japan began tightening in 2024, and it is aimed at imported inflation from expensive oil and a weak yen.