Macro · past 30 days
Monetary policy, central banks, inflation, currencies, and sovereign debt: the machinery that prices money itself. Polylog reads macro through a sound-money lens, watching credit expansion, real rates, and the slow shift toward a multipolar monetary order.
Macro
Warsh Delivers His First Jackson Hole Speech With US Profits at a Postwar High
Corporate profits rose $400.9 billion in the second quarter, even as the share of business output paid to workers fell, the economic backdrop the new Federal Reserve chair must now address.
Macro
Seven French Presidential Candidates Argue Over Debt and Pensions in First Debate
Marine Le Pen used the business-lobby event to present a 125 billion euro cost-cutting plan, eight months before the first round of voting.
Macro
Bitcoin Falls Below $79,000 as Traders Position for a Federal Reserve Rate Increase
Gold spot held near $4,614 an ounce and silver near $68.73 while the dollar index rose above 99, separating the monetary metals from the liquidity-sensitive digital asset before Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Macro
Washington Restricts Capital, Goods and People at Once as Investors Question the American Overweight
Trump has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Canadian aluminium while conceding the United States needs the metal, and a global pause on immigrant visas is reshaping flows from China and the rest of Asia.
Macro
Treasury's Expanded Bond Buybacks Work Against Warsh's Inflation Fight
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt to $4 billion per operation, and the 30-year yield returned to 5.247% within a day.
Macro
Canada Matches Washington With Tariffs of Up to 50% After Trade Talks Collapse
Ottawa's levies take effect on September 8 and cover goods from aluminium foil and dishwashers to fish.
Macro
Japan Plans ¥36.6 Trillion for Debt Service as Bond Yields Climb
The Finance Ministry raised its assumed long-term interest rate to 3.8% from 3.0%, a sharp one-year increase in debt costs.
Macro
Traders Price an 80% Chance the Bank of Japan Raises Rates Next Month
The yen trades near 159 to the dollar, and a Bank of Japan rate increase would narrow the interest-rate gap that has drawn capital out of other Asian currencies.
Macro
Canada Will Match US Tariffs Dollar for Dollar From September 8
Washington imposed 50% duties on about $20bn of Canadian goods after talks collapsed, while Asia-Pacific governments move the opposite way on services.
Macro
War-Driven Fertiliser and Diesel Costs Reach American Farms Before the Midterms
Anhydrous ammonia rose from an average of $828 a ton to $1,123 by mid-April, and living costs are becoming the central question of the November vote.
Macro
Treasury's Doubled Buyback Fails to Pull Down Long Yields, and Money Moves to Hard Assets
The 30-year Treasury yield sits near 5.25 percent despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubling long-end repurchases to $4 billion per operation, and Tokyo is increasingly discussed as a partner facing the same bond market pressure.
Macro
Washington Names India in a Tariff-Evasion Crackdown as Delhi's Security Adviser Lands in Beijing
A White House report puts India among more than 40 countries accused of routing Chinese goods, days before border talks that both capitals hope will enable Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years.
Macro
Canada Sets September 8 Tariffs on US Steel and Electronics After 50 Percent American Levies Take Effect
Talks in Washington collapsed on August 21, and Ottawa says it will match the United States dollar for dollar, putting the continental free trade pact itself in question.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Near Highest Since 2007 as Gold Holds Above 4,500 Dollars and Bitcoin Adds 22 Percent
The Treasury doubled the size of its long-bond buybacks, and investors bought leveraged single-stock funds through a chip selloff even as all three main American indexes lost ground on the week.
Macro
Russian Crude Passes Half of India's Oil Imports as Middle East War Reshapes Supply
Indian refiners took about 2.47 million barrels a day from Russia in July, a 62 percent increase on a year earlier, at an average Urals price near 60 dollars a barrel while Brent trades close to 94.
Macro
Pakistan Collects Record 15 Billion Rupees at the Khunjerab Pass as Tariffs Redraw Asian Trade Routes
Customs revenue from Chinese imports through the high-altitude crossing rose to 15 billion rupees in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while Indian exporters face American scrutiny over goods routed through third countries.
Macro
Treasury's Doubled Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Dated Yields
The 30-year yield returned to about 5.23 percent within a day of the Treasury's move, almost exactly where it stood a week earlier, while investors read the operation as a liquidity signal and bought gold and bitcoin instead.
Macro
United States Imposes 50 Percent Tariffs on 20 Billion Dollars of Canadian Goods
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would match the tariffs dollar for dollar after Washington changed the terms in the final hours of a three-day extension.
Macro
Japan Raises Its Budget Interest Assumption to 3.8 Percent, Highest Since 1998
The Finance Ministry's debt-servicing request for fiscal 2027 rises to about 36.6 trillion yen, constraining the expansionary spending plans of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Macro
India's Entry to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index Stalls on Market Access
Analysts put the potential foreign inflow at 15 billion to 25 billion dollars, held up by operational rules rather than by any doubt about India's credit.
Macro
Treasury's Bigger Bond Buybacks Fail to Hold Down Long-Term Yields
The ten-year yield climbed back to 4.71% on Thursday, one day after Scott Bessent doubled repurchases of long-dated debt, and Japan is heading into the same test with a sharply higher budget request.
Macro
Treasury Doubles Long-Bond Buybacks Days After Federal Debt Passes $40 Trillion
Scott Bessent lifted the maximum size of each long-dated repurchase operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the 30-year yield fell back from 5.34%.
Macro
Japan's Exports Rise 23.2% on Chip Equipment and Cars, but Volumes Grow Only 5.2%
Semiconductor equipment shipments jumped 49.1% by value while the yen remained weak against the dollar, meaning price rather than output produced most of the headline gain.
Macro
Walmart Reports Quarterly Results With Wall Street Expecting Revenue Near $187 Billion
Walmart reported adjusted earnings of 81 cents a share on revenue of $187.9 billion, beating estimates on both counts, but shares fell about 5% in premarket trading as investors weighed how much of the profit gain came from a one-time tariff refund.
Macro
Trump Pauses 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods for Three Days and Raises Keystone XL
The reprieve covers roughly $20 billion of imports including vehicles, dairy and liquor, and Trump said the contested pipeline "may be awoken from the grave."
Macro
BRICS States Condemn the European Union's Carbon Border Tax as a Trade Barrier
Environment ministers from the bloc called the mechanism protectionist and demanded a large increase in adaptation finance for developing countries.
Macro
Thirty-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.31 Percent, Highest Since 2007, as Oil Climbs
The S&P 500 closed 0.52 percent lower at 7,745.06 while gold held near $4,388 an ounce, still well below its January peak.
Macro
Trump's 50 Percent Tariffs on $20 Billion of Canadian Goods Take Effect in First Use of Section 338
The duties apply even to goods that qualify for free treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will hold its retaliation back while talks continue.
Macro
Airlines Hold Fare Increases in Place Even as Jet Fuel Costs Ease
Israel's agriculture ministry reversed a poultry import approval six months after granting it, and average wages there rose 7 percent without households noticing the difference.
Macro
Gold Trades Near $4,390 an Ounce as Central Banks Add 289 Tonnes Through a Falling Quarter
Official-sector purchases rose 62 percent from a year earlier even as the metal sat far below its January peak of $5,589, a divergence between price and reserve policy.
Macro
Portugal and Spain Lead Europe's Housing Shortage as Tel Aviv Apartment Prices Pass 5 Million Shekels
Spain's accumulated deficit exceeds 730,000 homes while Portuguese construction costs rose 6.9 percent in May, and Israeli data shows prices in Tel Aviv separating from its neighbouring cities.
Macro
Gold Holds Near 4,400 Dollars as United States Inflation Slows to 3.4 Percent
Silver traded above 65 dollars an ounce and futures markets still assign roughly two-in-five odds to a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.
Macro
The Yen Slides Back Toward 160 as Traders Test Tokyo's Willingness to Intervene Again
Japan's currency has given back about half the gains from the joint United States and Japanese intervention of late July, ending the week down roughly 1 per cent.
Macro
White House says tariff evasion costs it up to $26 billion a year as Brazil opens a retaliation process
Trade adviser Peter Navarro named more than 40 countries as channels for Chinese goods, and Brazil's government began proceedings under its reciprocity law without committing to counter-tariffs.
Macro
Carry traders rebuild yen short positions weeks after the coordinated intervention
The yen has reversed roughly half the gains from the July intervention, and Japanese utilities are turning to power futures to hedge fuel costs that a weak currency makes worse.
Macro
Hong Kong will list the first Shanghai free-trade zone bond as China builds financial channels outside the dollar
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing announced the listing on Thursday to defend its position as the main offshore yuan centre against competition from the mainland.
Macro
Trump imposes tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and their components
The top rate applies to aircraft above 25 kilograms or carrying thermal imaging, while allied producers in the European Union, Japan and South Korea face 15%.
Macro
US inflation held at 3.4% in July, cutting the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September
Traders lowered the implied probability of a September rate increase to about 42% from roughly 72%, and gold rose 1.2% while silver gained close to 3%.
Macro
Gold Holds Above $4,400 Before the United States Publishes July Inflation Data
Economists expect annual consumer price inflation of about 3.4 percent, slightly below June's 3.5 percent, while Chinese institutional and central-bank buying keeps bullion supported.
Macro
China's Gig Economy Now Absorbs Tens of Millions of Workers Leaving Formal Jobs
The Financial Times counts 53 million people in food delivery and ride-hailing, while official estimates put flexible employment at about 320 million, roughly 44 percent of the workforce.
Macro
Yen Trades Near 159 per Dollar as Tokyo's Joint Intervention Loses Effect
A coordinated operation with Washington failed to hold the currency's gains, and Japanese analysts are inventing new price comparisons to describe how far domestic purchasing power has fallen.
Macro
Oil's 5% Jump Lifts the Ten-Year Treasury Yield to 4.70% Before Wednesday's US Inflation Report
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase has returned to about 50%, and bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 for a fourth straight day.
Macro
Asian Shares Advance With Tokyo Leading as Traders Wait on United States Inflation Data
The July consumer price index is due Wednesday, with the June reading at 3.5 percent leaving investors split between rate cuts and renewed tightening.
Macro
German Economy Minister Says the Rise of the AfD Could Deter Investors
Katherina Reiche is trying to attract 3.75 trillion euros of private capital by 2040 at a time when more German households say they cannot afford a week-long holiday.
Macro
American payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and traders abandoned bets on another Federal Reserve rate rise
Silver climbed more than 3 percent to a six-week high and the dollar index slipped to 99.56 as two-year Treasury yields fell for a second straight week.
Macro
France heads into a budget confrontation with debt interest costs set to reach 74 billion euros in 2027
Public accounts minister David Amiel is asking opposition parties to take part in the spending cuts nine months before a presidential election.
Macro
US Employers Cut 23,000 Jobs in July and Traders Priced Out a September Fed Rate Increase
The Standard and Poor's 500 index closed at 7,757.64, the dollar index fell 0.5 percent to 99.43, and gold traded near $4,350 an ounce as wage growth slowed to 3.2 percent over the past year.
Macro
Trump Restarts the Removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Giving Her Until August 26 to Respond
The renewed effort follows a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling in June that blocked the dismissal but allowed a second attempt, provided Cook receives notice and a chance to contest it.
Macro
US Payrolls Fall 23,000 in July, Fed Rate-Hike Bets Collapse as Gold and Silver Jump
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that labor force participation fell to its lowest level in more than five years, even as the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent, and futures markets cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to below even.
Macro
Yen Gives Back Nearly Half of Its Gains From This Week's Joint US-Japan Intervention
The currency slid to roughly 158.45 per dollar before recovering to about 157.30 after a weak US jobs report cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase, and officials in Tokyo and Washington are signaling they remain prepared to intervene again.
Macro
Russia's Central Bank Cuts Gold Reserves for a Sixth Straight Month as World's Central Banks Keep Buying
Gold's share of Russia's international reserves fell to 41.5 percent from 43.6 percent, the sharpest monthly drop in 13 years, even as global central banks added roughly 41 tonnes of gold in May alone, according to figures cited by Russian financial media.
Macro
Washington Has Refunded About $100 Billion of Tariffs Voided by the Supreme Court
The sum returned to importers equals roughly 60 percent of the $166 billion collected under emergency powers, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says households will not receive the money.
Macro
Washington Has Repaid $100 Billion in Tariffs the Supreme Court Struck Down
The refunds cover about 60 percent of the $166 billion collected under emergency powers, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says none of the money will reach consumers.
Macro
Bank of America Cuts Its Year-End Dollar-Yen Forecast to 149 After Record Tokyo Intervention
The forecast assumes continued joint action by Tokyo and Washington plus a Bank of Japan rate increase, because the intervention alone did not close the interest-rate gap driving the yen down.
Macro
Nigeria Approves a $4.5 Billion Oil-Backed Refinancing, Pledging 78,750 Barrels a Day
The new facility replaces about $1.5 billion still outstanding on a 2023 loan and releases roughly $3 billion of fresh liquidity to the government.
Macro
Washington joins Tokyo in buying yen, and the operation exposes what the dollar system now requires
Japanese authorities spent about 5.33 trillion yen on Friday after a reported 8.45 trillion yen the day before, pulling the currency from 163.73 to roughly 155 per dollar.
Macro
China opens a retroactive hunt for offshore income and taxes trusts at 20%
Beijing gave tax residents until October 22 to declare previously unreported overseas income, using bank data shared under international reporting rules since 2018.
Macro
India sets a local-currency trade agenda for the BRICS summit it hosts in September
New Delhi will bring Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to a September 12-13 meeting focused on payments, supply chains and reform of the International Monetary Fund and UN Security Council.
Macro
Washington joins Tokyo in buying yen, pulling the currency back from a four-decade low
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States will not hesitate to intervene again, and reports say the New York Federal Reserve sold euros rather than dollars to fund the purchases.
Macro
Europe's minimum wage rankings change once purchasing power is counted, and Israel's social insurance faces a 2029 shortfall
Euronews finds that annual-only wage updates leave the lowest earners furthest behind in high-inflation countries, while Israel's finance ministry proposes tighter eligibility and higher contributions from those outside the workforce.
Macro
Warsh Holds Rates, and the 30-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Above 5.2%
Prices on long-dated bonds fell even as the Federal Reserve held rates steady, a sign investors doubt the new chair can contain inflation without tighter policy later.
Macro
Japan and the United States Intervene Jointly to Support the Yen for the First Time Since 2011
The coordinated dollar selling followed a sharp fall in the yen against the dollar, driven by the gap between Japanese and US interest rates.
Macro
US Senate Reaches Stopgap Funding Deal as Bond Markets Tolerate Rising Deficits
Senators unveiled a bill to fund the government through December 11, avoiding a third shutdown in under a year even as the deficit itself goes uncorrected.
Macro
US and Japan Jointly Buy Yen to Halt Its Slide, First Coordinated Intervention Since 2011
The yen strengthened to 157.40 per dollar after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York sold euros for yen on Washington's behalf, days after the currency approached its weakest level against the dollar since 1986.
Macro
United States Treasury Buys Yen With Japan to Halt a 40-Year Low, Its First Such Intervention in Over a Decade
The New York Federal Reserve sold euros for yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and the yen rose as much as 3.6 percent before losing most of that gain.
Macro
Volkswagen Turns to Headhunters to Place Hundreds of Managers It Is Cutting
Germany's largest carmaker has approached recruitment firms to find outside jobs for departing executives as it carries out a major restructuring.
Macro
Bond Market Doubts Warsh's Inflation Resolve as 30-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.21 Percent
Long-dated United States Treasury yields climbed as traders priced roughly a 57 percent chance the Federal Reserve raises rates in September.
Macro
Warsh's Inflation Warnings Push 30-Year Treasury Yield Above 5.2 Percent as Fed Split Widens
The price measure the Fed watches most closely eased to 3.7 percent in June, yet long-term borrowing costs climbed even as governors openly discuss a rate increase.
Macro
South Korea's Won Gains Nearly 8 Percent Against the Dollar Despite a Technology Selloff
One of the world's strongest currencies last month, the won rose even as chip-linked stocks fell, a sign of resilience investors did not expect.
Macro
Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1% After Intervening to Slow the Yen's Decline
One board member dissented in favor of an increase to 1.25 percent as the bank warned that core inflation will rise clearly above its 2 percent target.
Macro
Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1 Percent and Cuts Its 2026 Inflation Forecast
The central bank trimmed its fiscal 2026 price outlook to 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent, and the yen strengthened toward 158 per dollar as traders weighed intervention.
Macro
China's Chip Boomtowns Widen the Gap With Its Struggling Industrial Heartland
Factories in Hefei cannot keep up with AI hardware demand while Changchun's carmakers report severe difficulty, a split that keeps Beijing dependent on exports.
Macro
German Bankruptcies Hit a 21-Year High as Europe Confronts a Second China Shock
Nearly 5,000 German firms filed for insolvency in the second quarter, and Berlin and Paris are pushing the European Union toward tariffs on Chinese goods.
Macro
Japan Moves to Cut the Food Sales Tax to 1 Percent for Two Years
Prime Minister Takaichi's plan to ease living costs would widen a budget gap in a country whose population has now fallen below 120 million.
Macro
Barter Apps Spread in Europe as Inflation Pushes Households Away From Cash
Services that let users trade time and skills instead of money are growing amid rising living costs, one of several signs that persistent inflation is reshaping how Europeans transact.