Geopolitics · past 7 days
Inter-state conflict, diplomacy, sanctions, and security, covered for their market consequences. Polylog weighs non-western sources equally and reports the contested middle ground rather than one bloc's framing.
Geopolitics
Vance says Iran must make a "meaningful reduction" in enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war
US President Donald Trump said no one knows who is running Iran. Tehran's Foreign Ministry said Washington knows exactly who its counterpart is, and the Houthi movement in Yemen claimed a strike on a Saudi base.
Geopolitics
Russia strikes Kyiv with missiles and drones on Putin's 74th birthday, killing at least two people
Russia fired about 70 missiles and Shahed drones at Kyiv and a dozen other regions, killing at least 11 people, with the deadliest strike destroying an apartment building in Pryluky. Russia's state news agency TASS reported that four drones were shot down over Russia's Kaluga region overnight. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine's membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not under consideration.
Geopolitics
Latvia says armed escorts on the Belarusian side threatened its soldiers before a second border breach
On the same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko praised his alliance with Moscow in a birthday message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Russian state media published commentary on threats to attack Kaliningrad.
Geopolitics
US withdraws bombers from RAF Fairford in Britain over an Iranian drone threat, and Trump tells a rally Iran could "take out" Los Angeles
US officials told The New York Times that 12 bombers left the base after specific threat details emerged, and Israeli outlets report that Iran planned an attack modeled on Ukraine's 2025 drone strike on Russian bomber bases.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan invoke the Mecca defence pact for the first time and agree to deploy forces to the kingdom quickly
Reuters reports that the August agreement allows for up to 80,000 Pakistani troops, but both Turkey and Pakistan need parliamentary approval, and Pakistan's parliament rejected a similar Saudi request in 2015.
Geopolitics
Russia says 650 Ukrainian drones flew toward Moscow overnight in one of the largest attacks on the capital region in two years
Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov said a 20-year-old man was killed and six people were injured, while a Russian drone strike closed a bridge in Zaporizhzhia.
Geopolitics
South Korean ports loaded 176,000 tonnes of fuel onto Russian tankers, including ships under UK and EU sanctions
The shipments, mostly diesel, appear to be legal under South Korean law because Seoul's export controls on Russia cover electronics, machinery and vehicles, not fuel.
Geopolitics
Ethiopia's Abiy vows to secure access to the Red Sea as a rebel offensive and a break with Eritrea raise the risk of a regional war
Ethiopia's government accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the offensive launched on September 22, and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia last week.
Geopolitics
Iran's Security Chief Admits the Economy Is in Its Hardest Period as the Blockade Cuts Oil Revenue
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has admitted the economy is in crisis as the rial trades near 2.57 million to the dollar. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says only "just and fair" talks can end the war with the United States.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey Convene Their Makkah Defence Pact as Yemen's Government Opens an Offensive Against the Houthis
Pakistan sent its foreign minister, army chief and defence minister to the Riyadh meeting, which focuses on Houthi strikes against Saudi infrastructure, including a power facility in Madinah.
Geopolitics
United States Withdraws All 12 B-1 Bombers From Britain's RAF Fairford After a Suspected Plot
Washington gave no public reason. The withdrawal followed the arrest and release without charge of five men suspected of planning to plant explosives near the base, which has been used for strikes on Iran.
Geopolitics
FBI Arrests California Woman Accused of Watching Taiwan Leader's Son for Beijing
Prosecutors say real estate agent Zhang Wanying, 34, sent Chinese officials photos, video and license plate details of the family of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's son. Taipei called the case "transnational repression."
Geopolitics
Estonia Moves Troops Toward Russian Border and Plans Strikes Inside Russia if Attacked
Estonia's "active defence" plan requires Estonia to fight for 30 days without outside help. It abandons reliance on reinforcements from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) arriving after an invasion, while Moscow's state media dismisses Nordic threat warnings.
Geopolitics
Jet drone strikes Kyiv's Northern Bridge as Russia reports damage in Kaluga
A Russian drone hit Kyiv's Northern Bridge on Saturday, the second Dnipro River crossing struck in two days, halting traffic there after repeated strikes closed the Southern Bridge and restricted two more crossings on Friday.
Geopolitics
Satellite images show China accelerating runway work on Antelope Reef as Moscow warns Tokyo
Analysts expect paving in the first half of 2027, and Russia's foreign ministry said Japan's missile plans threaten the security of its Far Eastern borders.
Geopolitics
Explosions Hit Addis Ababa as Ethiopian Opposition Alliance Claims First Drone Strikes on the Capital
An intelligence official confirmed three blasts in three locations overnight, hours after Ethiopia's security service banned all drone flights over the city, and witnesses reported no visible damage at the army headquarters the alliance says it targeted.
Geopolitics
Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Offer as Tehran Keeps Striking Ships in the Strait
Washington sanctioned Iran's largest carmakers and rail operators, Tehran asked Baghdad to lift a flight ban imposed under United States pressure, and President Trump warned Iran would be hit "very hard" if it is found to be linked to the attempted hijacking of a flydubai flight to Israel.
Geopolitics
Kyiv Says It Intercepted Russian Plans to Cut Major Cities From Power, Heat and Water
Ukraine presented the documents to European partners as Ukrainian drones struck industrial sites in Volgograd and Russian air defences reported destroying 62 drones over Voronezh region overnight.
Geopolitics
South Korea Threatens Measures Against Ukraine Over Disclosure of North Korean Prisoner Transfer
President Lee Jae Myung says Kyiv broke a confidentiality agreement and endangered the two soldiers' families, while Ukrainian officials dispute that any such agreement existed.
Geopolitics
Eritrea Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Ethiopia as Fighting Spreads in the North
Addis Ababa expelled ten Eritrean diplomats and accused Asmara, Sudan and Egypt of backing an armed opposition alliance, a rupture that comes after the 2022 Tigray ceasefire.
Geopolitics
United States Completes Iraq Withdrawal as Tehran Receives Washington's Reply
The last American troops left Irbil after a twelve-year mission against the Islamic State, while Iran confirmed it has an official United States response to its proposal to end the seven-month war.
Geopolitics
Pakistan Strikes Two Sites in Afghanistan, Kabul Says Nine Civilians Killed
Islamabad's information ministry said the strikes killed at least 22 fighters from two armed groups, while the Taliban government said the dead were nine women and children in Kunar and Helmand.
Geopolitics
Manila Says a Chinese Survey Ship Falsified Its Position Near Undersea Cables
The Philippine Coast Guard tracked the vessel inside the country's exclusive economic zone off Batanes while its transponder reported a location more than 2,000 nautical miles away.
Geopolitics
US-Led Coalition Formally Ends Its Military Mission in Iraq After Twelve Years
Baghdad calls the September 30 coalition withdrawal deadline fixed and final, but has pushed back its own timeline for pro-Iran factions to surrender weapons to June 2027 after key armed groups refused to disarm.
Geopolitics
Pentagon Awards Boeing a $20 Billion Contract for the Navy's Next Carrier Fighter
The F/A-XX will replace the F/A-18 under the Next Generation Air Dominance programme, while Japan's parallel effort to upgrade its F-15 fleet slips behind schedule on rising parts prices.
Geopolitics
North Korea Rejects Seoul's Finding on the DMZ Mine Blast and Warns of Immediate Retaliation
Kim Yo Jong called the investigation a self-staged farce after South Korea's military, joined by the multinational United Nations Command, concluded that a North Korean mine caused the September 21 blast and violated the 1953 Armistice Agreement.